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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas G. Busillo who wrote (31330)	3/27/1998 3:27:00 AM
From: Kerry Phineas	Respond to of 53903

TB, its all crap. Chas is quoting a source talking about how MU is considering going from .25 to .18, and your article gives MU at .30 and considering going straight to .22. Meanwhile, DavidG smarmingly links articles that go into detail about MU's technological advantages over competitors(specifically the fact they are ahead re generations), while your article states MU is a generation behind Samsung. It doesn't really matter right now that it is all crap, but one shouldn't attempt to over-analyze right now looking for an immediate turnaround. The high level of fixed costs and the time period that the fixed costs are useful suggest that there will be an extended period over which these companies continue to face troubles assuming they pump out chips at slightly greater than marginal cost. Given the high levels of cap exp in '97, the turnaround isn't coming soon and MU is going to face some more problems. Of course after this period, the survivors will have a bonanza because a number of competitors have been put under AND those who have been around haven't been able to make sufficient cap exp and ergo supply is insufficient for demand. Another layer of complexity gets added on imo by the fact that we're reaching an inflection point where only the bigger companies will have the resources to expend the 1.5-2 billion dollars that will be needed for a next generation fab. I DO NOT KNOW who will be around in 1-2 years, but both MU and the Koreans look bad. The Japanese do not look great.