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To: TREND1 who wrote (31336)3/27/1998 4:00:00 AM
From: Kerry Phineas  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53903
 
LD, for MU it is possible there will never be an up cycle in Dram. Who the hell knows? No one on this thread really knows for sure. For a number of the companies in the industry there will never be an up cycle in Dram. That is basic logic because cap exp's are increasing exponentially, demand is not keeping pace, and there are players present from a period where the economies of scale were much lower. (the economies of scale were more MU-sized). Can MU generate the cash internally? For now, no they cannot. However, it is very possible they can emerge from this mess as a debt riddled and semiconductor-concentrated company and eventually work the debt off in time for the next down cycle.



To: TREND1 who wrote (31336)3/27/1998 3:56:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53903
 
larry, of course not. what i'm saying is there will never be an up cycle while everyone in the business expects to make the mother load 6 months out. they must turn negative on dram before there will be an up cycle.

remember what kind of valuation mu had before the last up cycle? nowhere near what it is today.