MARKET ACITIVITY/TRADING NOTES FOR DAY ENDING THURSDAY, MARCH 26, 1998 (2)
OIL & GAS Oil Extends Gains But Norway Votes Down Cuts LONDON, March 26 - Oil markets made fresh gains on Thursday in the expectation that OPEC will next week confirm a landmark output cut agreed with other producers. Even bigger price gains were wiped out after Norway's parliament rejected a proposal to respond to the Riyadh pact by reducing output by at least 100,000 barrels a day (bpd). Norway's minority government ran into shock opposition from parliament on Thursday when it said it wanted to join other oil producers in curbing output to push up sagging prices. ''A more stable price is an advantage both for producing and consuming countries,'' Oil and Energy Minister Marit Arnstad told a news conference. She said the government was seeking a cut of between three and six percent in Norway's actual output. Norway, the second largest oil exporter in the world behind Saudi Arabia, pumps about 3.2 million barrels per day (bpd). But a majority in the legislature came out against the proposal, for a cut of around 150,000 bpd, when she presented the plan to the foreign affairs committee. The government has just 42 of 165 seats in parliament. ''The government has been very clumsy,'' said Jan Tore Sanner of the opposition Conservative Party, which has 23 seats. ''We question if the situation is so dramatic to justify such big production cuts.'' Arnstad said: ''This is a suggestion and not a decision. We will have more consultations in the week to come.'' She added that the government would review the size of the proposed cuts. Norway, which curbed output from 1986 to 1990 to help OPEC bolster weak prices, had previously declined to say whether it would back the planned reductions launched by Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Mexico last weekend. If cuts were made, Arnstad said a decree would be issued on Friday, April 3. Prices on the NYMEX exchange in New York fell below $17 a barrel on an initial selloff after news that parliament was against the plan, falling 32 cents to $16.80 a barrel. The market had peaked at $17.19 on expectations that Norway would cut output. Cuts pledged by other producers so far amount to 1.4 million bpd, including 1.25 from OPEC producers, from April 1 until the end of 1998. OPEC producers are to meet in Vienna on Monday to approve the deal to shrink a huge glut of crude. ''This an overreaction by the government,'' said Oyvind Vaksdal, of the opposition Progress Party, which has 25 seats in parliament. ''There has been a fall in oil prices but it has stabilised,'' he said. ''I think it's bad timing and that the government should await the OPEC meeting.'' Opposition parties suspect the government of seeking to use the cuts as a backdoor measure to achieve its policy of reducing the pace of exploitation of Norway's petroleum resources to safeguard the environment. Norway ordered oil firms to curb output by 10 percent in 1986 when prices plunged. It gradually phased out the cuts until abandoning them in July 1990. Since then, it has rebuffed OPEC's suggestions of cooperation. The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) this week said it was revising downs its forecast for Norway's average oil in 1998. The NPD said delays to new oil fields and technical problems at some installations meant crude production this year was unlikely to reach a forecast average of 3.6 million bpd. Norwegian Oil Minister Marit Arnstad said she would continue to push for an output reduction despite the opposition of a majority in parliament. World benchmark Brent blend crude closed 27 cents a barrel higher at $15.40 as traders bet OPEC will agree to trim production in talks in Vienna on Monday. That is $3.50 a barrel up from a nine-year low touched earlier this month and marks a $2 barrel increase since the deal came to light. Dealers with long memories said the producer group that accounts for 40 percent of global output retained an alarming capacity to surprise. ''If the cuts are confirmed, the market will rally further,'' said one. ''If they aren't, they are going to have a rude awakening,'' he added, suggesting prices could sink back to recent lows. Recollections of previous price slides sparked by public OPEC rows will hover around the gathering as it prepares to bless OPEC's contribution to the deal with other world oil producers, delegates said. Under the accord, cuts from April 1 until the end of 1998 are expected from all Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries members bar Iraq and non-OPEC producers Mexico, Oman, Norway, Russia, Malaysia and Eygpt, according to cartel sources. Cuts pledged so far amount to 1.4 million bpd, including 1.25 from OPEC producers. Russia says it will not cut. There have been murmurs of discontent in OPEC after Iran and Indonesia said they would cut output from their official OPEC output quotas, not actual production as is assumed under the pact. Since capacity constraints mean these countries can produce only below quotas established last December, their announced ''reductions'' would have no effect on crude supplies. Morgan Stanley Dean Witter said the agreement had come about because of producers' concerns over the price squeeze on revenues and because prices had made unprofitable much heavy oil production from OPEC members like Venezuela. The research team said the agreement ran counter to a common perception that production most at risk from low prices was in offshore non-OPEC areas such as the North Sea and Gulf of Mexico. ''The production most at risk from a falling oil price is located onshore and within OPEC,'' it said. A reminder of the crippling effect of low prices emerged on Thursday when foreign contractors in Saudi Arabia said state oil firm Saudi Aramco had been forced to review its spending plans on a series of refinery and oilfield development projects. Aramco, the world's largest oil firm, had scaled back or delayed projects to expand two domestic refineries and reviewed new facilities aimed at boosting local gas supplies. Uncertainty also lingered over likely Iraqi exports. The U.N. Security Council last Friday approved a measure more than doubling the amount of oil that Iraq can sell over six months from the current $2 billion, but Baghdad said it did not have the capability to export that volume. Indonesia and Russian energy giant Lukoil on Thursday became the latest oil producers to announce they will reduce exports because of a recent plunge in world oil prices. Indonesia will cut crude oil production by 70,000 barrels a day, Mines and Energy Minister Kuntoro Mangkusubroto said. Lukoil, Russia's biggest oil company, will cut exports of oil products by about 7 million barrels this year, company chief Vagit Alekperov said. But exports of crude oil will remain unchanged, he said. Alekperov also said that as Lukoil reduces exports, it will step up sales at home, especially in the lucrative Moscow market. The decision by Indonesia, an OPEC member, to go along with the production cuts comes despite its attempts to work its way out of its deepest economic crisis 30 years. NYMEX Crude Closes Higher On OPEC Expectations NEW YORK, March 26 - NYMEX crude futures gained for the second straight day on Thursday, fueled by expectations of OPEC's confirmation next week of an agreement to cut oil production. The market pared early gains on an initial sell-off in the afternoon on news that Norway's parliament had rejected a government proposal to cut output by about 150,000 BPD. But overall, optimism over producers' plans to carry out an agreement to slash world oil output by 1.7 million barrels per day remained high, despite some critics' views that some producers may not reduce their output in the amounts pledged. NYMEX crude for May delivery settled at $16.83 a barrel, up 35 cents from Wednesday's close of $16.48. April heating oil contract closed at 45.73 cents a gallon, up .61 cent from Wednesday's settlement of 45.12 cents. Front-month gasoline ended at 53.82 cents a gallon, up 1.24 cent from Wednesday's close of 52.50 cents. Warren Tashnek, an analyst at Houston-based Fimat USA Futures, said trading had turned choppy and should be in for some more. The day's swing back and forth from above $17 and below before settling with a good gain developed as the market reacted to news from Norway that while its parliament had rejected a recommended oil output reduction, its oil minister was still in consultations and would push a 3-6 percent cut. ''This apparently not a done deal,'' Tashnek said, observing that '' there will still be a lot of volatility and trading will continue to be choppy ahead.'' Norway, the second biggest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia, produces about 3.2 million barrels per day. It had not previously said whether it would back efforts by other OPEC and non-OPEC producers to cut output as a way to boost oil prices. OPEC is convening an emergency meeting in Vienna on Monday and is expected to confirm an agreement spearheaded by Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and non-OPEC member Mexico to reduce global output by about 1.7 million BPD. Of the targeted cut, OPEC has pledged 1.245 million BPD. Mexico has pledged a cut of 100,000 BPD. The producers' move to do something about the currently glutted markets have heartened traders, who have seen oil price slump from a high of $23.15 a barrel in October to a nine-year low of $12.80 on Tuesday last week. The market rose Wednesday last week on Venezuela's announcement that it was seeking an agreement on the oil output reduction between OPEC and non-OPEC producers. After the announcement of the agreement on Sunday, NYMEX crude soared to $17.50 on Monday, then backtracked on Tuesday and moved up again on Wednesday, after OPEC confirmed it was holding a meeting in Vienna next week. NYMEX Natural Gas Ends Down With Soft Cash, Mild Temps NEW YORK, March 26 - NYMEX Hub natural gas futures ended lower across the board Thursday in a moderate session, with a soft physical market in the face of mild weather forecasts this week keeping paper on the defensive all day. April slipped 2.7 cents to close at $2.338 per million British thermal units. May settled 2.4 cents lower at $2.38. Other months ended down by one-half to two cents. ''It was a pretty tame close, and I don't expect to see much movement tomorrow either, but cash is still below the screen, so we could see April expire slightly weaker,'' said one Midwest trader, adding mild weather expected early next week could chase some of the speculative length from the market next week. Much warmer weather was still forecast for the East and Midwest this weekend and into early next week, with temperatures predicted to climb to as much as 25 degrees F above normal. Texas and the Gulf Coast also are expected to warm to as much as 15 degrees F above normal for the period, with more seasonal temperatures expected by midweek next week. Chart traders agreed a lagging cash market, still several cents under the screen, could lead to a soft April expiry tomorrow. Key April resistance remained at $2.43, with more selling expected at the contract high of $2.46. Interim support was seen at $2.29-2.30 and then in the $2.26 area, the 50 percent retracement of the recent leg up. Additional buying could surface at $2.20, but major support was still pegged at the recent low and double bottom at $2.105. More buying was expected at $2.06 and $2.00. For May, chartists saw major resistance at Monday's contract high of $2.46. Support was seen at $2.33 and then at $2.30, the fifty percent retracement point. Major buying was expected at the $2.135 recent low. In the cash Thursday, Gulf Coast swing quotes slipped several cents to the mid-to-high $2.20s. Midcon pipes were down a similar amount to the high-teens to $2.20. Chicago city gate gas was a few cents lower in the low-$2.30s, while New York skidded a nickel or more to about $2.50. The NYMEX 12-month Henry Hub strip eased 1.4 cents to $2.492. NYMEX said an estimated 65,057 Hub contracts traded, down from Wednesday's revised tally of 70,231. U.S. Spot Natural Gas Prices Retrench With Futures NEW YORK, March 26 - U.S. spot natural gas prices turned a little softer Thursday, in tandem with a faltering April futures contract set to expire Friday, industry sources said. Henry Hub cash prices were quoted mostly at $2.28-2.29 per mmBtu, down from about $2.33-2.34 on Wednesday and holding about a four-cent discount to April futures. In the Midcontinent, where temperatures were forecast to jump to 20-25 degrees above normal Friday, prices lost three cents to about $2.16-2.20, while Chicago city-gate prices were talked mostly at $2.33. In western Texas, Permian Basin prices eased by two cents to $2.09-2.14, with the higher-priced deals reported done in late morning trade. San Juan prices were quoted at $2.02-2.08, while southern California border prices held steady at $2.33-2.38. In the Northeast, New York city-gate prices were talked in the high-$2.40s as temperatures were expected to rise to 18-22 degrees above normal Friday. Meanwhile, American Gas Association said natgas stocks fell 78 bcf last week, with 67 bcf seen withdrawn in the East. Overall stocks were 23.3 percent ahead of year-ago tallies. Following a week of above-normal temperatures across most of the U.S., cooler weather is expected to return to the Midwest by the middle of next week, also seeping into the Northeast. Canada Spot Natural Gas Still Firm Amid Early Injections NEW YORK, March 26 - Canadian spot natural gas prices remained firm Thursday in light trade as early storage injections and limited supplies outweighed the current mild weather conditions, traders said. Spot gas at the AECO storage hub in Alberta was quoted little changed at C$1.79-1.805 per gigajoule (GJ), while April clung to about C$1.80 per GJ. Summer AECO business was also reported at C$1.80, while one-year prices were quoted at C$2.24. ''There was a net injection yesterday, and field receipts still haven't gotten above 12.4 bcf (billion cubic feet),'' one Calgary-based trader said, noting western storage rose 30 million cubic feet on Wednesday. Meanwhile, temperatures in southern Alberta continued to average above normal, with today expected to reach a high of 10 degrees Celsius. In the export markets, prices at Sumas, Wash., hovered in the high-US$1.30s per million British thermal units (mmBtu), mostly steady from Wednesday. In the east, gas at Niagara sold mostly at US$2.46-2.47 per mmBtu, off about six cents from Wednesday. |