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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Narotham Reddy who wrote (18259)	3/27/1998 2:28:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Thread, From Yahoo: quote.yahoo.com Friday March 27, 12:19 pm Eastern Time RESEARCH ALERT - Applied EPS views cut NEW YORK, March 27 (Reuters) - SoundView Financial said its analyst Michael O'Brien lowered his earnings estimates for Applied Materials Inc. [Nasdaq:AMAT - news], but left the stock's ratings unchanged at short-term hold and long-term buy. -- For calendar 1998, the earnings estimate went to $1.08 per share from $1.38. For fiscal 1998 it went to $1.33 from $1.52. -- For calendar 1999 it went to $2.06 from $2.21, and for fiscal 1999 it went to $1.66 from $1.95. -- No further details were immediately available. -- Applied Materials was off 3/4 at 35-1/2 in midday trading. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

To: Narotham Reddy who wrote (18259)	3/28/1998 8:47:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

analyst rant: I own some BSX (maker of surgical instruments, different industry, different analysts from AMAT), and on 3-13-98 a bunch of the analysts following the stock upgraded it. What they said was all true, but useless. The stock had just gapped up to 69 (right before the upgrades were made public). 4 months earlier, the stock was below 42. The upgrades happened AFTER a 66% climb in the stock price, with the stock near its all-time high, and at the upper end of its PE range. When the stock was cheap, they had nothing but negative comments about it. This pattern is identical to what the AMAT analysts do. The more experienced I get as an investor, the less respect I have for analysts. They consistently make these mistakes: 1. lagging indicator. They are so afraid of being wrong, that they don't say anything until it's obvious, and then the news is already in the stock. 2. herd behavior. Their motto: "Being wrong alone is the only thing worse than being wrong." 3. 3-6 month outlook at most. In December 1997, their collective wisdom was: "BSX is one of the top two or three companies in a rapidly growing industry, it has an excellent balance sheet, proven management, excellent long-term prospects, but don't buy it because the next two quarters will be bad". Sound familiar to AMATers? After 3 years at investing, I've simplified my strategy to this: 1. Make a short list of great companies. From this list: 2. buy when the last analyst downgrades, and 3. hold till the last analyst upgrades. Sorry, had to get that off my chest.