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Biotech / Medical : Zonagen (zona) - good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: clochard who wrote (3131)	3/27/1998 3:08:00 PM
From: Linda Kaplan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7041

I see. I thought that was why the stock has been going up, up till now. I have bought biotechs speculatively thinking if I hold for some years they could pay off well, but in this market, with so many stocks paying off well right now, I've often given up on the ones I'd intended to hold that long: not on all of them, of course. But I try to re-evaluate whether they can still pay off well, given the changing market. I'm about to cut one loose because there's a better competing product in the wings and the stock hasn't done anything for me after three years of waiting. On the one I'm thinking of dropping, it has an approved product that is building success, but I no longer think it can be a blockbuster. ZONA's future looks more and more bleak for similar reasons, and more, since it may never be approved, its product doesn't seem that good, and since the market will be saturated by the time it's approved, if it ever is. I don't agree with those saying management is crooked -- I don't really know if that's true. But people who are honest and well-meaning start an enterprise that doesn't turn out to be as great as they expected, all the time. Vasomax doesn't seem like it will be a great product, will take a long time for approval, if ever, and then may not have much of a market. We're talking a few more years of holding when we could be in a stock that is zooming up right now. VVUS stock lost 3/4 value, greatly on the basis of Viagra's potential. I think VVUS may actually improve from here on in, since the effect has already been built into the stock price. Oddly, ZONA did not lose value based on Viagra. Now, that means to me that the shoes have yet to drop, and Viagra's effect is yet to be felt on the price of ZONA stock. In my opinion, it could yet go to at least half based on Viagra alone. Linda