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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LTK007 who wrote (15289)	3/27/1998 7:06:00 PM
From: epicure	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

I would argue that it is necessary for their credibility to be gone in order for their warnings to come true. If everyone believed them it couldn't happen.

To: LTK007 who wrote (15289)	3/27/1998 7:11:00 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Yeah --everywhere you look there's another one of these sicko wacko bears. When the Dow hits 20,000 they'll quiet down.

To: LTK007 who wrote (15289)	3/27/1998 7:48:00 PM
From: Bonnie Bear	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

It's hard to be a bear when a billion dollars a day is being pumped into the market, eh? I just look at the list of ADRs and marvel at how poorly represented most of the world is. We don't have access to most foreign markets, there's poor execution and poor liquidity. I'd venture to guess that we'll look back 25 years from now and marvel at how few foreign equities existed. And a new set of market leaders will emerge from unlikely places. Hard to imagine Asia sinking into depression when companies with assets and employees the size of our Dow stocks are trading as microcaps. The NYSE is looking for a huge expansion of ADRs, especially Chinese stocks, in the next few years. The mighty Israeli technology sector is in its infancy. The double-digit european unemployment and high real interest rates, combined with the expansion of money supply, looks like the U.S. in 1982. IMHO we ain't seen nothing yet. I, for one, am increasingly afraid to be out of the market, it is a time to at least park a little money in an international index fund where the money will slosh around and find new homes. The money will move, the markets will become much more complex and volatile, and someday Americans will be reminded that they are less than 5% of the world's population.

To: LTK007 who wrote (15289)	3/27/1998 7:48:00 PM
From: bearshark	Respond to of 94695

Max: I know that I don't know. I saw the item also on CNBC. However, there is a difference in trading in the last three days. It may simply be a correction or consolidation waiting for the next move up. At this point, I am not betting that it is the bear market. I also watched a part of the show where two guys were handling calls from viewers about individual stocks. Each stock was discussed by the "professionals" and they all said they were good holds but the prices reflected the good news or something close to that. None of them said buy them--except at the end one guy said go ahead and buy it. It made me wonder, if they do not expect it to go higher, and they would not buy at these prices, why are they holding it.

To: LTK007 who wrote (15289)	3/27/1998 8:04:00 PM
From: Bonnie Bear	Respond to of 94695

max: one of the illusions of the market is that individual greed is driving it up. I've seen a number of reports that indicate that it is the companies buying back their own stock at inflated prices that is driving up the stock , and from buying other companies at many times their book value to improve earnings. This is done to provide a tax-efficient alternative to dividends. And they buy stock for their pension plans and for employee 401K plans. Out of necessity, the companies with large employment or expensive employees are likely to have high stock price from the increased demand placed on the self-purchase of shares. For the stocks to crash, a large number of shares has to be dumped. In the case where a cash-rich company buys back its shares to prevent this it's almost impossible for it to crash. My guess is that THE GRAND PLAN is to level out the stock price growth and gradually replace it with dividends as the baby boomers age. For all we know this has been negotiated between the feds and the pension plans. It seems plausible to me, I just wish I could find this rationale in print somewhere. The advantage of this scheme is that it allows pension plans to buy a mix of index funds and keep them for many years. The eventual problem of payout is solved because the dividends allow the pension plan an alternative to selling the stock.