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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bob Kimball who wrote (9084)	3/29/1998 2:07:00 AM
From: Stephen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

Bob ... you maybe right as far as distribution is concerned. I haven't spent much time watching it, but when I have the last couple of days, the bids are much smaller than the asks. Also, last Fridays late surge was probably on low volume by small investors, as it was reported that many of the traders had left early for the weekend. Friday was also a stellar day for the internet stocks, after a steady downward trend for a couple of weeks. I also think that there may have been late day rotation, with some profit taking on the big intraday move in Yahoo, going into AOL. On the positive side for AOL, after the split and downgrade and the price slip I saw the bigger players buying and the smaller investors bailing out. This tells me that there is still a will by the mm's to hold a position in AOL, and as someone on the thread previously pointed out, AOL has to be THE internet stock to own for window dressing purposes due to its profile. For that reason, as I've said previously, I think the stocks fine through month-end. In the first couple of days of April it may pull back, but the chart looks as easy to read as any, and it should bounce off 63/64. I'm not at all familiar with the AMAT situation, but am cautious of the run-up/split/distribution reasoning you are using. Overlaying the AMAT, GGNS LRCX & NVLS 30 week charts, they all dipped at the same time. Novellus split at the same time, but the other smaller companies didn't ... Also, AMAT traded in a narrow range between August 1st and the October 14th split, hitting its high in the third week of August.... so I'm not sure the run up scenario is totally relevant as distribution should have occurred well before the fall. You were obviously watching this at the time, are you sure this wasn't just the Asian problem that the tech market suffered ?? In any event ... you're right ... time will tell !!! Good luck !! Stephen