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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tom pope who wrote (5665)	3/27/1998 8:18:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

>Tulip mania will only end when all of us who regularly follow this thread have thrown in the towel and bought tulip bulbs.< Tom agree with your view. However, I hear of no arguments aside from supply demand conditions driving the market(i.e. the money poring in) which can support this market. People are taking it as if dow 10,000 were a ball game or a race. IMO we are in very shaky ground. If you consider the fact that the S&P is trading at close to 30X estimated 1998 earnings that are yet to be revised downwards, and I assure you they will. The market may get the double whammy effect of a decrease in the E in the PE ratio and a decrese in the perceived growth rate of earnings this would make the PE look taller than the World Trade Center Building and believe me it could make for a very nasty surprise, regardless of the level of interest rates. There is already evidence of the earnings slowdown and IMO this will not change. Pancho