To: Don S.Boller who wrote (8948 ) 3/28/1998 12:26:00 PM From: CuriousGeorge Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116752
The Education of a Speculator by Victor Niederhoffer Oracles, forecasts and prophecies are a business. They should be evaluated with the same skepticism and savvy that would be applied to a used-car dealer or an Oriental rug auction. Legendary and self-administered reports of forecast accuarcy should be taken with eight grains of salt .... Based on my study , I have developed some guidance for the oracle business in the new millennium: o An impressive site that invokes awe .... o A guru, preferably pushing age 100, should be installed as the head o Networking should be preferred over forecasting o Forecasting should be rare. Briefings should stick to statements, commands and warnings. o If a forecast is mandatory, it should be made conditional on events unlikely to occur ... or ambiguous o A certain mysical ambiance should be adopted ... o The accuracy of forecasts should be evaluated by the forecaster. (Answer NO questions!) o When ... one of the forecasts has hit the mark ... hold a multimedia press conference o When an audience is credulous, a startling forecast should be delivered, provided the answer is known in advance ... or arrange to obscure the timing of the forecast so it seems to have occurred before the event. o A new forecasting technique should be developed at each public meeting so that clients will evaluate the methodology rather than the forecast. Rules of Losing o Know that you are the greatest. Let your opponent know ... o Cut your gains when you are ahead. Relax, you're the greatest. Never think about what could go wrong, it wont. Grab at small profits and refuse to take losses. o When behind, put everything you have into catching up. After you've caught up, coast for a while, you're the greatest. Dwell on your victories, recall to them to yourself in great detail. Never look back on defeats. o Enrage your opponents by downplaying their chances and mocking their ability. Let them know a la Babe Ruth what your intentions are; leave limits and stops at round numbers. o Invite the opposite sex to the game, and let it be known that you're the greatest. Hey, if your good, flaunt it. o Adapt new and experimental techniques and apply wwithout paper trading. o Adopt expensive habits. o If the market goes against you, stick to your guns. You know best. Don't worry, you're the greatest, the market is wrong. o Celebrate victory the evening before, tally your profits, leave an order with your broker to exit at the close. o Forget about fractions and grabbing all the edges, don't worry about your fills. What's a tick or two when you're the greatest. But what does Niederhoffer know, he sevened-out in October when the S&P tanked and he was long. Oh yeah ... one more rule ... get in over your head for fun and excitement because you are the greatest. Now I'm afraid poor Victor is a hoodoo ... there is about him an air of departed prosperity which is unmistakable. He was once a member of the NYSE, or the son of one, or what's-his-name that was <Soros's> broker twenty years ago. He is most knowing of speed and would easily fool you if you were not warned. All the past he understands, and the why of everything, but for the present and future he is a source of fatal ideas and a borrower of money. So be carefull, capital IS a coward; watch out for oracles, losers, and hoodoos; and of course those mean, nasty black cats ... they are all bad news and bad luck.