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To: Robert Graham who wrote (7439)3/28/1998 12:37:00 AM
From: carolyn walder  Respond to of 42787
 
Robert - I would suggest that you go to the WIND fundamental analysis thread for answers to some of your questions. There is an index that is frequently updated which categorizes responses - a way to avoid wading through a sea of posts. I will try to summarize some of the info here..

Contrary to your statements, WIND is probably one of the most conservatively managed small technology companies out there (IMHO). I have been following this company very closely over the last year and a half and there are certain patterns emerging.

1) The company does not appear to engage in much self-promotion, let alone "hype" - case in point, there was no press release on the CSCO alliance, just a few sentences in the earnings press release. Recently, an article appeared (I can't remember the specifics, but the link is supplied over on the WIND thread) on the "new" HP and how it was going big into the internet and embedded world - and that VxWorks was the OS they were using... techweb.com We knew about Jetsend, but this appears to MUCH bigger. Yet, no news from WIND.

2) They manage their earnings to 45-60% growth - that is sustainable for at least several years out. Look at their earnings numbers, they are all rounded to the nearest million or so. I have listened to every conference call for the last 6 quarters and Ron Ablemann (CEO) has publicly stated that they meet their internal sales targets, and then they start delaying shipping of product and use other tactics to avoid booking revenue. They do not have a hockey stick in earnings - they have an internal target of 90 backlog which they are meeting. And that deferred revenue you asked about?...It is revenue which they have already "earned" just not booked (e.g., they recognize service contracts rateably over their life (a conservative accounting practice). And their deferred revenue is growing at about the rate their booked revenue. This is not my assessment - this is all info I picked up on the conference calls or through contact with the company.

3) I20 revenue should start to make an impact next quarter. Wind's IxWorks is the OS which is included with every i960 chip Intel sells. Right now it is really just the server market, but I20 is turning our to be more successful than originally thought and is suggested to go into PCs in the next few years. WIND gets about $1.50 in royalties for each chip Intel sells (more for the recently acquired StrongArm). WIND is also on the I20 steering committee - which you must be elected to. There are 5 companies, Intel, HP, 2 others I can't remember, and WIND. In the last election, WIND beat out Compaq for the seat on the steering committee - To me that is a tremendous vote of confidence in the importance of this company and its RTOS and embedded computers in general for the future.

There is more, (including the rationale behind the convertible bond) but I have to go to bed. In summary, look VERY closely at the company and I think that you will love what you see.

Carolyn

p.s. If you want to see Ron's vision of this company for the future, go to the WIND thread and find the post on the new company headquarters. [one of the reasons for the bond $] Someone got a hold of the design sketch and posted it. It is incredible - and this 10? 100? (I can't remember the number) acre campus is definitely being built to hold a lot more than 350!



To: Robert Graham who wrote (7439)3/28/1998 12:45:00 AM
From: carolyn walder  Respond to of 42787
 
Oops! Technical difficulties...



To: Robert Graham who wrote (7439)3/29/1998 12:01:00 PM
From: J. Kerner  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 42787
 
Bob,

Re: WIND big block trades -- I agree that is very hard to tell if these large block trades caused the price to rise or not. My very limited understanding of large block trades is that sometimes the price is agreed on or the actual sale takes place before the transaction is actually printed on the tape - the delay could be a few minutes or more. Since the bid/ask for WIND moved up fairly quickly the first half hour of trading it is very hard to know if the big block trades occurred at the current bid/ask or a few minutes earlier when bid/ask was lower. Again, I could be way off base here because I have never talked to a professional about how transactions show up on the tape. I read about the delay somewhere and I don't remember the source.

Regards,
Jason