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Biotech / Medical : PFE (Pfizer) How high will it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Barron Von Hymen who wrote (757)	3/28/1998 4:11:00 AM
From: James Baker	Respond to of 9523

Barron, One thing that you and others have ignored in making your projections is that a large percentage of ED patients have psychological causes for their ED. A great many of these men will be "cured" by use of Viagra for just a short time, therefore they will not need to be on long term treatment. Only the mild to moderate ED's who respond to Viagra will be long term buyers. The constant aging population with new men moving into the group will be the greater source of revenue. Jim

To: Barron Von Hymen who wrote (757)	3/28/1998 7:25:00 PM
From: Ron Flanigan	Respond to of 9523

Baron - I like your math. Will my blue cross pay for the script? Ron Flanigan

To: Barron Von Hymen who wrote (757)	3/30/1998 1:24:00 AM
From: JPM	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9523

"With Viagra to be sold about $7 a pill, gives treatment costs per person at about ( 7 X 52 ) $364. I'll use a profit margin of 17% (Pfizer's 1997 margins from SEC reports ranges from 17 to 19% ) which gives me roughly $4.2 billion in net profits for one year." Baron, you have some seriously flawed #s... let's assume as you did that 10% of potential viagra customers use the drug at your rate of 1x/week... that's 3million people * $364 = $1.092 Billion in SALES !!! at 20% profit margin, that's 220 Million in earnings... or about 20c per share! As it is, PFE has a PE of about 50, yet growth is nowhere near that, and I might add that PFE has a price/sales of 10 or so, making it quite pricey. Jp