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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (15336)	3/28/1998 8:47:00 AM
From: P.Prazeres	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, The activity on the thread has picked up again...now we can go to 9000.<g> Paulo

To: William H Huebl who wrote (15336)	3/28/1998 10:23:00 AM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, How were you calculating the Marketgauge indicators? Were you taking the total of the negative bars minus the total of the positive? (Each indicator being allowed to go up to plus or minus five bars). My idea was simply to count the number of positive or negative indicators without regard to the intensity of each one, and to guess that if the number of negative indicators was double the number of positive indicators, something drastic was ready to happen. I guess it's easy to make that speculation since what I describe has never happened yet as far as I can tell. One could be more statistically fancy by adding the combined weights of each indicator, and also make allowances for the neutral ones. But it's easy in a few seconds just to count up the positives and negatives and get some notion of how things are leaning. I do remember how amazingly accurate the original Wall Street Week "elves"--the technical indicators, not people--were back in the 1970s. One could have made a lot of money simply heeding their buy and sell signals, which made some mistakes but were mostly correct. So I was trying to come up with some rough and ready equivalent and not get too fancy beyond that. What the Marketgauge indicators are telling me is that things are changing but that there is as yet no clearcut confirmation that this incredible market overvaluation is coming to an immediate end. I would be more than happy to be wrong! As I recall, you and I both thought that there would be a major market break about June 20 of last year, and it never came. I figure now that I will let the Marketgauge people collect the data and watch that rather than trying to guess when the market will finally be pereceived as overvalued. But since I have been wrong so much of the time for the past year, maybe my luck will hold, I will be wrong again, and we will get a 2,000 decline on the Dow next week.