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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: EPS who wrote (21447)	3/28/1998 9:01:00 AM
From: dwight vickers	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42771

(OFF TOPIC) Victor, Are you saying that less liquidity is deflationary, which is bullish for the market? On a very, very, short term basis, and in very small, imperceptible almost, quantities, that could be true. But since this is a market and economy fueled by the excess liquidity injected by the Fed since 1994, I posit that any attempt to slow it down runs the serious risk of accomplishing what the Japanese accomplished in 1989 when they tried to prick their bubble. We need more and more and more liquidity to keep the market rising. Any attempt to slow it down will be spotted by the people on and off Wall Street who watch those numbers closely. They will all attempt to get out at the same time if it's too obvious. But they will have been beaten to the door by those who don't have to guess at such matters. The confident small investor will initially (-10%?) consider it to be another buying opportunity. Chances are that won't last long, as it didn't, even in October. In spite of what was advertised the public was net sellers during that minor correction. Sorry if I misunderstood what you were saying. The positives you mention are certainly in the market at these levels. Earnings actually fell in the 4th quarter, and the outlook going forward could be even worse. Yet the market continues going up, with valuations at all time high levels. Something there doesn't quite seem right. But then it's not all that unprecedented. When the market used to be driven almost solely by interest rates, bull markets had a habit of ignoring rising interest rates for as much as 6 months before finally turning down. Don't get me wrong. No one knows when this will end, or how it will play out. There are many different models. We could see a correction of 20-25% that feels like a bear market but is short in duration. A race to the old (possibly higher) highs fueled in part by "we told you the market always goes back up", then a final top. But if I see a blowoff type move any time soon, I for one will be playing it for a least an initial 50% decline. Good luck, Dwight

To: EPS who wrote (21447)	3/28/1998 3:43:00 PM
From: Olaf Koch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

(Off Topic) If the Euro somehow takes off then we could face a serious financial crisis..We now have a rather easy way to finance our external debt which is not available to the other countries..and this eventually translates in a tremendous advantage over our competitors. But this is not coming any time soon, I hope. Several economic analysts predict that we will get a bipolar currency system with a lot of money rolling from dollar into euro. Living in Germany and so somewhat involved I believe this will come true over the next two to three years. I expect the dollar and the pound sterling to retreat somewhat (to the extent of 30 percent over the next years) as the continental european economy heads on, fueled by ever-increasing reforms, probable political changes and an income tax reform in Germany after the next elections, a reemerging East European economy, and a merger wave throughout Europe. That's just my feeling. A lot of taboos are breaking here in Germany, which helps remodeling economy. A tumbling dollar would let a lot of overseas investor to taqke their money off the table (stock market) with apparent consequences for first the stock market and then broad consumer spending in the US. The future might be different, but this scenario isn't impossible. Olaf