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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ibexx who wrote (15343)	3/28/1998 9:50:00 AM
From: Bonnie Bear	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

No- I'm still bearish on this market. We need a bear. Chronic bullishness isn't healthy, this has turned into a national addiction. I just don't think U.S. investors are ready for the flood of ADRs that will be hitting the NYSE in the next few years. They are very myopic.

To: Ibexx who wrote (15343)	3/28/1998 10:55:00 AM
From: Bonnie Bear	Respond to of 94695

Ibexx: a bit off-topic- The conversion of communism to capitalism has been a rocky road. Corruption is rife and standards are nonexistent. The process of listing an ADR forces a company to set an international standard of accounting, of reporting, of liquidity and accountability to shareholders that doesn't exist on many exchanges. I'd guess that as the flood of ADRs gets established on the NYSE the standards will be transported to other exchanges. We should have an international Dow and international S&P someday. Right now the only way many companies can participate is to sell partial ownership to a US S&P or Dow stock. I'd guess we'll see some corporate bloodshed and nationalism surface as some of these exchanges engage in turf battles. It should make for an interesting decade. The thing that astonishes me the most is how the press reports the decline in the Hong Kong stock market and the unprofitability and unemployment in China like a contagious disease. China wants a mighty stock market. In Shanghai. Hong Kong and the government-run enterprises were rife with corruption and money-laundering. The conversion of state-run enterprises is quite similar to the decline of aerospace companies at the end of the Cold War, with massive unemployment as the business base transitions into profitable enterprises. So China- Shanghai- looks to me like the U.S. in October of 1990. Economic peace and military peace are inseparable. Rubin noted this in one of his speeches, and alluded to a massive effort to use this "asian crisis" to clean up the corruption and bad debts, improve transparency and liquidity of foreign markets, and stabilize world financial markets. It wouldn't surprise me if money earmarked for the CIA was used in the IMF efforts. So I see this event as-eventually-wildly bullish for small foreign stocks. As Paulo noted they're been in a bear market for several years now.