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Technology Stocks : Y2K (Year 2000) Stocks: An Investment Discussion -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: paul e thomas who wrote (10478)	3/29/1998 1:26:00 AM
From: Jeffrey S. Mitchell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13949

Paul, despite the weakness in tool vendors in the last two weeks, my sample portfolio of 40 Y2K stocks is up 4% in that time. 207.183.153.206 Note: all stocks started with $10K. Thus, the entire portfolio was worth $400K two weeks ago. It is now worth $417K. - Jeff

To: paul e thomas who wrote (10478)	3/29/1998 7:16:00 AM
From: paul e thomas	Respond to of 13949

12 MONTH Y2K TARGET I calculated a target for price appreciation over the next 12 months for my portfolio.TO do this I first used First Call data for 1999 earnings and the current PEG based on the 5 year forecast % per year EPS growth rates. MY portfolio now consists in descending order of :( IMRS,SYNT,TAVA,ACLY,COGIF,MERQ, and KEA). I had to estimate my own 5 year EPS rate for SYNT, and TAVA.From this work I calulated the average price appreciation on an unweighted basis is 42 and 33% on a weighted basis. My own projection is for a 70% gain for my portfolio. Unfortunately there is no good way in my opinion to estimate a price target for TAVA so there is considerable uncertainty in my projections.My portfolio has grown at 7% per month over the last 3 months which is triple the growth rate of the average growth fund. To reach my target the last 3 month growth rate can decline by 1/3 and I would achieve it.I expect the highest percent growth in TAVA,ACLY, and COGIF.I still plan to try and hold all my stocks for 12 months to stay in the 28% tax bracket because even with the First Call projections I hopefully can save 60,000$ in taxes and an additional 40,000$ if my portfolio can grow 2% per month faster than with First Call estimates.

To: paul e thomas who wrote (10478)	3/29/1998 9:29:00 PM
From: paul e thomas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13949

PROVING MY POINT Today's Chicago Tribune financial section has an article about the financial implications of the Y2k problem. The main emphasis is on the downside economic impact which the author portends will lead to a recession.While it mentions opportunities in embedded chips it doesn't do so in an investment context. The only investment suggestions were for two European firms I have never heard of :WM_DATA of Sweden and ATOS in France.The article brought out falls in price of DDIM, ZITL, VIAS. In general my thesis that the media are ignoring the upside potential in some y2k stocks was supported by the article.