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Technology Stocks : FSII - The Worst is Over? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (1852)	3/29/1998 11:08:00 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2754

The following is another way of looking at the declining outlook for the semi-equips. Every three weeks I update the "next year" earnings etimate for each stock in the database of 37 stocks. Then by dividing the total earnings for the group by the number of stocks that contributed to the total, an average earnings estimate can be computed. The results are shown below. Although the data goes back further than shown, I started with the week closing 12/12/97 which is about when the Asian crisis started becoming news. Notice how the average next year earnings estimate in the last column started going down and is still going down as of this week. It shows there is a significant time lag between an event and when the analysts change their estimates. Also, notice the cumulative gain for the period shown in the table is about 16 percent even though the drop in the average earnings estimate has decreased from 1.81 to 1.40, a decrease of 23 percent. Of course, as we have seen before, there is very little correlation between the stock price and the analysts estimate of an individual stock earnings, or a group of stocks earnings, on any individual day. WEEKLY CUM AVE CLOSING SUM PERCENT PERCENT NEXT YEAR PRICE CLOSING GAIN/ GAIN/ EARNINGS DATE PRICES LOSS LOSS ESTIMATE 12/12/97 629 -1 1.81 12/19/97 677 8 6 12/26/97 663 -2 4 01/02/98 703 6 11 1.72 01/09/98 632 -10 -1 01/16/98 668 6 5 01/23/98 679 2 7 1.61 01/30/98 689 1 8 02/06/98 767 11 21 02/13/98 803 5 26 1.53 02/20/98 792 -1 25 02/27/98 825 4 30 03/05/98 749 -9 18 1.49 03/13/98 730 -3 15 03/20/98 714 -2 12 03/27/98 735 3 16 1.40