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Biotech / Medical : Zonagen (zona) - good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dauntless who wrote (3158)	3/28/1998 11:19:00 PM
From: Bill Wexler	Respond to of 7041

Clueless looks forward to "revenues". Gee Clueless...your original lies no longer cut the mustard, so now you are trying to peddle some new horse manure. Good luck. See you at < 5 a share.

To: Dauntless who wrote (3158)	3/28/1998 11:33:00 PM
From: Peter Goss	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7041

<<Zonagen received $10 up front from SGP as part of the deal for distribution rights to Vasomax.>> I know it's a typo, but that's about how much SGP wishes they had paid. So anyway, how much do you think investors are expecting? Right now ZONA is capped at 15x that one time payment. It seems as if Latin American revenues will dribble in - let's be generous and say 2 million doses at $3 for $6 million. So now we are at 25x those revenues, and we can't count the SGP money since it is a one time thing (when you think about it those funds aren't really revenues in accounting terms). Seems pretty expensive to me, but what do I know. Oh, by the way how does no EXPEDITED NDA figure into the question? Everyone seems to be avoiding this issue. Seems like the regular process of approval will be years away, so as good investors we should discount all of those huge potential revenues a bit more heavily. Interest income? yeah right that's why I buy a speculative biotech company because I really am dissatisfied with my money market fund. Those aren't revenues either. So I am left with a one time payment, interest income on diminishing pile of IPO proceeds, and a slim trickle of pesos. I hope investors begin to see the light. I want to cash in my puts. Peter

To: Dauntless who wrote (3158)	3/29/1998 2:19:00 PM
From: Hank	Respond to of 7041

Since you've made it a point to ignore the question of economics regarding the future "earnings" potential in Latin America, I took it upon myself to dig up some economic facts regarding this region. The following is a list of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita in US dollars for each Latin American country you listed in comparison with the US and Canada: Country GDP Per Capita (US$, 1994) USA $25,514 Canada $18,635 Costa Rica $2,463 Honduras $532 Nicaragua $433 Panama $2,550 Argentina $8,248 Bolivia $867 Brazil $3,786 Chile $3,685 Colombia $1,847 Ecuador $1,597 Peru $2,128 Venezuela $2,618 El Salvador $1,584 Guatemala $1,252 Mexico $4,041 While these numbers are not indicative of the standard of living in each country, it does provide a guide as to what each countries buying power is in terms of US dollars and cents. Lets not forget that ZONA and SGP must report any "earnings" they receive in US currency not Mexican pesos etc. I would also point out that these numbers represent the per capita GDP which means the ENTIRE population of each country was used to generate these numbers, not just the number of impotent men. The way I see it, ZONA is either going to have to figure out a way to make Vasomax cheaper to make than aspirin or they are going to have to set up manufacturing facilities in one or more of these countries in order to keep manufacturing costs down. Otherwise, the profit margin on Vasomax in these countries in US dollars and cents will be very thin indeed. Hank