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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical Analysis - Beginners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chris G. who wrote (8187)	3/29/1998 7:04:00 AM
From: gonzongo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12039

names of 2 securities?

To: Chris G. who wrote (8187)	3/29/1998 2:53:00 PM
From: gonzongo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12039

Chris- you question Dave's comments about funnymentals. Dave actually said: "Question: Why would you be concerned with Funnymentals if you are trading short term??? Answer: Because you THINK you are suppose to be. If you are trading for the first bounce you should be looking at Volume & Price ONLY!!! PE Ratio and Price to Book has no barring whatsoever in this scenario. You are ONLY concerned with the next jump in price. " Now TALK went against your indicators. it was caused by news. Fair enough. Not by PE and Price to Book. Our interpretation of news can also be wrong- A company comes out with an earnings warning and then rises. A company comes out with great numbers and then falls. A company comes out with a new product and the company and the competition both go up. Go figure. But TA can often hint the direction of the stock. I personally would not have picked TALK on 3/24 but have no strong case against buying it- especially after the fact. very few systems can be better than 75% winners- that is 3 out of 4 picks are winners. The percentage of wins is often influenced by the market: Example: I am checking out a system which looks at short term signals to see if entry is higher 10 days later at the close. Simple enough. Picks from 3/13 had an 87% success rate picks from 2/27 had a 74% success rate picks from 2/12 had an 80% success rate picks from 12/30 had a 32% success rate picks from 10/31 had a 64% success rate picks from 10/17 had a 46% success rate overall rate was about 65%- but it depended on the MARKET. If the market is a bull then indicators for long transactions work better. Why were the numbers for 12/30 so bad- because the market tanked in the first part of January 98. Similarly in late October. Answer- not reading the news or studying tons of funnymentals but 1. Protective mental or physical stops ( Dave uses Parabolic SAR) 2. Acceptance that trading is a percentage game. You can lose on 50% and still win big. g

To: Chris G. who wrote (8187)	3/30/1998 12:13:00 PM
From: David R. Evans	Respond to of 12039

What does a call off merger have to do with Funnymentals??????? Please do not confuse Funnymentals with News..... News comes and goes. The worst thing you can do is try to trade on it unless you have access to something no one else does...... I develop Financial Reporting systems so I KNOW the games that are played with the numbers. Every Company has TWO sets of books, one for the Government and one for the Analysts. Funnymentals will never tell you when to get into or out of a stock, only TA can do that. Many people try to combine the two and I have no problem with that. No, I am not one of them BUT, I can see where it could be an advantage. In the shorter term, Funnymentals will grow less and less significant until you get close to day trading and they are worthless.... News, you should always check to see if there are any "stories" going around about the stock BEFORE you buy it. If a merger or takeover has been announced at $10 a share and the stock has just jumped to $9.75, it makes no sense to buy it. I try to stay away from story stocks.. Dave Evans