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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (15376)	3/29/1998 10:09:00 AM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill-- All along I have been waiting for the really big and protracted change of direction the markets, and it has been clear that for a long time now the markets have been priced higher than ever before (measured by dividend yield, P/E, book value, even by earnings growth now). Because I am already positioned for this, it really does not much matter to me when it happens--but one cannot help looking for superstitious confirmations that it is about to happen. Individual technical indicators can be skewed in various ways by temporary aberrations, but it does seem to me that if you get a whole lot of them turning the same way at once, the likelihood is much higher that one is getting a reliable sign. The most important long-term indicators for the bear are firmly in place, but there's disagreement among short term ones--including those that Fosback considers most important. However, even if the whole shebang went negative, the most I might do at this point would be to buy some more Prudent Bear Fund. I am not about to put my home equity into AOL shorts, lucrative though that might turn out to be. But if my interpretation of the Marketgauge indicators seems sound, I may do some switching in and out of Prudent Bear, cover some short-against-the box positions or reestablish them, etc., (not day by day, but within timeframes of several weeks to several months). But we will see. Best not to count your dinosaurs before they hatch. I have sure had to learn some remarkable lessons about how big a bubble can get. I made the mistake that P. T. Barnum warned us all against, imagining that people were too intelligent to keep put money into stocks at these levels. Oh incidentally, the frog is fine. As a matter of fact I need to go check my ant trap and feed him.