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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (15381)	3/29/1998 11:59:00 AM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

According to what I have read, a number of people who shorted the market in 1929 did make a lot of money. But on the whole, of course, what you say is true. Buying something undervalued and selling it at or above its real value is the way most people make money on markets. One of my positive investments is MAKOX, the Matthews Korea Fund, which has done awfully well so far. And I have lot tied up in oil and also in precious metals. And even a very few low P/E hitech speculations--including Tadiran (TTELF), which I learned about from you. It was above 15 this past week, and I like its prospects in countries that are underinvested in communications.

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (15381)	3/29/1998 1:00:00 PM
From: Bonnie Bear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Haim: you might want to look at Ed Yardeni's econ forecasts. He shows durable goods orders dropping 4th quarter, residential fixed income going from 17.2 to -0- next year, real disposable incomes dropping to -0- next year, book profits halfed by 3rd quarter, personal savings up by 3rd and 4th quarters then dropping, unemployment increasing after this quarter, truck sales dropping, home sales dropping by next year, bond yield dropping, and the U.S. lapsing into negative GDP by the end of next year. It's not a pretty sight. But some of the indicators seem to conflict, like a fairly stable level in home sales while unemployment increases. The amount he shows bond yield dropping suggests that it's already priced into this market, but the drop in profits has not. So I don't know how much of that can be absorbed by foreign acquisition, M&A. If you believe his forecasts, it's the time to move from stocks to bonds. His past track record is impressive.