To: Sidney Reilly who wrote (3101 ) 3/29/1998 1:56:00 PM From: Zeev Hed Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 4736
Bob, you stated: " 50.5 bcf gas reserves x $2/thou cf = $101,000,000 cash value of reserves , $101,000,000 ö 100,000,000 shares issued = $1.01 per share gross asset value based on the reserves discovered so far. " And this is actually pretty interesting view, the valuation of the company according to these numbers (assuming these are the only assets on one side and that the number of shares is only 100,000,000) is about $.1 to $.2/share. To refine this better, we need to know what percentage of the gas accrue to NAMX, I doubt it is 100% since someone is leasing these properties to them and would want a piece of the action (50% is not unusual, Arakis had to let go of 75% in a similar case). Furthermore, you need to discount the future value of these assets to today using a fair discount rate over at least 10 years, resulting in a present value of about 30% of the total current "face value". So, if your data are correct, then the fair value of the company could be in the range of $.15 to $.30 per share. We come back to some very simple vauation questions, how many shares are outstanding, what percentage of the gas recovered belongs to NAMX, how long it will take to recover that gas (and then use an alternative valuation of 5 to 7 times expected cash flow per share). It might also be helpful to use the current energy costs, I have not followed natural gas, is it still at $2/1000 cuft? Last, in estimating gas reserves, one need to be careful with what is reported, typically there are "Proven", "Probable" and "Potential" reserves. I know not to which category the 50 Bcf belong, but if some of it is "probable, you take only 50% in valuation, and the "potentia;" should really not be taken at more than 10% in valuation. Last thing, to assume that the stock is currently selling at what it is being due to attacks on this and other threads is ridiculous. I have not "attacked" this stock since the last rally to $.2 <VBG>. Furthermore, other have been singing the glories of this stock on this thread for the last year and this glorification did not prevent the stock falling apart. We hear that all the time, the attacks on the stock caused RMIL to fall apart, the attacks on EXSO have caused it to fall apart and everytime a rational analysis of a stock is presented directed at valuation of the same stock (just today I was asked again on my agenda on the TTRIF thread, another stock I thought was being hyped for the benefits of few since it was well overpriced aboe 3 last year). Good luck to you. Zeev