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To: Robert K. Sims who wrote (5347)3/29/1998 10:28:00 PM
From: Jeffrey S. Mitchell  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10786
 
Re: My ALYD Revenue Projection

The following are two alternate approaches to reach $75M in revenues for '98. The first method assumes a progressive growth of from 40-60%, while the second method assumes a steady growth of 50%. I've averaged the two together on the bottom.

So, for example, if ALYD announces Q4 earnings of 6.25M, I would hope Q1 would be in the range of between 8.75M and 9.38M to be considered extremely bullish. If Q4 is 6.5M, then Q1 should be between 9.1M and 9.75M to be extremely bullish.

I say "extremely" because I think the closer we get to the year 2000, the more explosive growth will be. Thus, if we can hit these numbers early on, we should blow them away towards the end of the year.

Q4 '97     Q1         Q2         Q3        Q4 
------    -----      -----      -----     -----
	40%	 47%	 54%	 60%       TOTAL		
6.00	8.40	12.35	19.02	30.43	70.19	
6.25	8.75	12.86	19.81	31.69	73.11	
6.50	9.10	13.38	20.60	32.96	76.04	
6.75	9.45	13.89	21.39	34.23	78.96	

	50%	 50%	 50%	 50%	TOTAL	
6.00	9.00	13.50	20.25	30.38	73.13	
6.25	9.38	14.06	21.09	31.64	76.17	
6.50	9.75	14.63	21.94	32.91	79.22	
6.75	10.13	15.19	22.78	34.17	82.27	

           AVG        AVG        AVG        AVG      TOTAL 
6.00	8.70	12.92	19.63	30.40	71.66	
6.25	9.06	13.46	20.45	31.67	74.64	
6.50	9.43	14.00	21.27	32.93	77.63	
6.75	9.79	14.54	22.09	34.20	80.61

Of course revenues mean nothing without expenses. After we get the year-end numbers we should have a better idea about profitability. But as ALYD has established a factory approach, I expect expenses to level off sharply once their target infrastructure is in place.

- Jeff


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