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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (18289)	3/30/1998 1:53:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Threaders, When I recalculated AMAT using the DW method based on the DW low of $32 using the horizontal method I get $47 (5 columns x 3=15, +32). When I use the potential Vertical method when it hits $39 and breaks the triple top of $38 I get $54 ( 7 "x's" times 3=21, +$32). So the relative near top range is $47-$54. When we include what we know from Tom O'Neil's, IBD's, method of the Cup and handle, I can see the momentum taking over around $54 and giving a tremendous jump to AMAT. IMO, we will see the analyst jumping back into the SEMI's with buy recommendations and all the media telling us how the Pacific Rim problems have been resolved and the Semi stocks are going to be great. Won't that be great news to us as our portfolio's increase. The problem is what will be our exit strategy this round since we will be in the 20% tax bracket. Any ideas? The tough decision will be my AMAT shares above $100. I just do not know how long to ride it out above $100. My high standard deviation calculations based on AMAT's previous highs calls for $104.549 (Pre-split basis). But, we reached $108.375 the last run up. Other, possible considerations which can possibly influence the market and AMAT are: -Impeachment of Clinton (IMO, it will not occur since he can ride it out, legally, time wise and Congress does not have the "B_lls" to impeach him--he has those FBI files on all of them and with the upcoming elections will use those files releasing them to the media). But we could sure have a mess. - A tremendous year(s) just prior to an Presidential election--the economy will boom based on the future election. -Possible FED rate increases. -Gulf war. -Other possibilities? Overall it looks to me that we will continue to have two booming years prior to the Presidential election. What are your strategic views on exiting AMAT and our projections? Thanks for your feed back!! Paul V.