To: Alomex who wrote (10425 ) 3/30/1998 10:13:00 AM From: Hugues Read Replies (1) | Respond to
Differences of OS not relevant. Further explanation
We are concerned here by AAPL valuation.
What is the point of arguing MacOs 8 and Win 95 differences ?
When Windows 3.1 was the only competing OS, there were not any doubt among people knowing both OS that MacOs 8 was superior. Anyway, the MS OS increased its market share. So, there were clearly other reasons to explain that.
As you said,
It was not a determining factor
Back to nowadays.
YOU think there are not enough differences in the OS to prevent from switching from Mac to MS or to buy directly MS.
I think there are enough differences to prevent ME from switching to MS.
The real point in the middle term (and only one amongst other factors of decision) is:
How many people think as you do, and how many people think as I do ?
And the conclusion is:
If there are less than 95 % of people that think as you do, Apple can maintain market share and even increase it.
So the point you should make is how many people do think this way, or the other way.
I don't think you can make this point.
What's more, you must take into account that Mac users are very loyal to Apple. You can call it fanatism, you can call it a healthy reaction against wintel domination, you can call preservation of experience, you can call it better perception of their needs, you can call it whatever you want.
But it is a fact.
So, from a logical point of view, there are at least 2-3 % of people that don't think as you do: it just remains to find 2-3 % more. I don't think it is so difficult.
As a conclusion: there are still differences between the OS, there are enough people to think they are big enough to impact their decision. So there is no need to further discuss it, especially because we can't relate it to the actual AAPL stock price, neither to year 2000 stock price, when Apple will be on Rhapsody.
On your attitude on this board:
I guess it is really difficult to stand calmly to your point when you are surrounded by people that do not share your point of view. And of course some Mac users are fanatics. But:
- first, I don't blame them on this. You will find fanatics on a lot of other boards. After all, the very existence of this board is indeed linked to this "fanatism". You will find a lot of companies bigger than Apple, which great turnaround potential (for example STM and ALA ;-)), with much less traffic
- second, you must take it into consideration for valuing this stock, because a lot of AAPL stock is in the hand of Mac users, and they don't sell it heartily, and you won't change it. This is a cold fact an investor must cope with
- third, your opinion is really welcome, as far as you are talking of the perspectives of the company. You sure understand that your past opinions about Apple do not interest us much. We could easily have guessed them. But I don't think they are of any indication that you can guess better the future of the company. I even think it is a more a signal that you can't. For a lot of reasons, Apple is very different from what it was a year ago. You sure know this. So please don't ground anything on Apple past
So once again, thank you for taking the charge of advocating the short position. But if you want to be listened to, keep it open-minded. Not all people here are fanatics, and no one knows the future.
