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To: Arnie Doolittle who wrote (5348)	3/30/1998 10:53:00 AM
From: Kevin F. Spalding	Respond to of 10227

Arnie, Excellent summation. I do recall a note in the article though that the subscriber estimates may be a bit optimistic. I kind of doubt it. What were the naysayers saying in about 1981 about PC's? Speaking of PC's... <<6. Aerial Comm. has an arpu of $70. (NXTL's arpu is competitive with the digital industry and can be expected to remain at these levels. As prices "drop", arpu won't but more services will be offered for approximately the same arpu.) >> --In 1984, you could buy a nice little PC (or was it PC jr) system for about $2K. Today, you can buy a nice home PC system for about $2K (which would have the approximate power of a 1980 mainframe! Remember, we went to the moon with the computing power of today's hand held calculator!). The PC makers sure haven't lost much money over the last 18 years now have they (unless you're Apple (food fight to follow))! Now, if I just had the cash to pay the taxes on all the capital gains I made last year. Unfortunately, all my NXTL is tied up in retirement accounts and that is almost 20 years away. Kevin

To: Arnie Doolittle who wrote (5348)	3/30/1998 11:23:00 AM
From: Paul Frantzis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10227

> 7. PCS-analog dual phones will soon be out. This is the one downside that NXTL will have to face as duality gives the PCS companies immediate access to the wider and deeper coverage of analog. Thus, coverage will be better in the short term for PCS vs. NXTL. How well the dual phones work remains to be seen. And, of course, existing customers would have to buy new phones (at least I assume that is true.) Yep, they'll have to buy new phones.

To: Arnie Doolittle who wrote (5348)	3/30/1998 1:22:00 PM
From: John F. Dowd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10227

Dear Arnie: Looks like NXTL being tarred (off over a point as of this moment) by this brush (see article below): NEW YORK, March 25 (Reuters) - The government's auction of radio wave spectrum brought lower bids than Wall Street expected, which could reduce the perceived worth of spectrum already held by companies such as WinStar Communications Inc. and Teligent Inc , analysts said. "The government has dumped so much spectrum on the market in the past few years. The economics of supply and demand say it's like buying a patch of sand in a desert. Sand may be valuable someday, but right now there's still a really big desert," said David Roddy, chief telecommunications economist with Deloitte & Touche Consulting Group. The U.S. Federal Communications Commission raised a net $578.7 million for the U.S. Treasury in the auction for the rights to the Local Multipoint Distribution Service (LMDS) band of spectrum, which uses microwaves to send high volumes of information between fixed points. Government budget analysts had estimated proceeds of $500 million from the LMDS auction, but some industry watchers expected bids to run much higher. "It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to this (the auction bids)...there are discrepancies between the value of the bids and the value attached or embedded in the stock prices of WinStar and Teligent," said Jack Reagan, an analyst with Legg Mason. "They are still excellent, excellent companies. But they are fully valued now." WinStar and Teligent, among a new breed of companies using advanced digital wireless technology to provide voice and data services, have seen sharp increases in their stock prices in the past few months. WinStar has gained 75 percent to 43-9/16 since the end of 1997, while Teligent has risen about 34 percent to 33. WinStar was among the leading bidders in the LMDS auction, along with WNP Communications, a private firm backed by seven venture capital funds, Nextband Communications, owned by Nextel Communications and Craig McCaw's Nextlink Communications . Some of WinStar's existing spectrum may now been seen as fully-valued or overvalued when compared with the prices paid in the recent auction, several analysts said. WinStar did not return calls seeking comment. Larry Winfield, a vice president with wireless and broadband consultancy Hardin & Associates, said the value of the spectrum remains to be seen. "What is spectrum really worth? Spectrum does not have an actual worth. The PCS auction went at extremely high prices. Those who paid that are going out of business. For LMDS, it depends on what they build, the markets they have and their strategy. It remains to be seen," Winfield said. The LMDS winners are seen as potential challengers to the entrenched local telephone and cable television monopolies. But costly network build-outs, other new competitors and customer uncertainty pose problems, analysts said. What is your take? JF Dowd