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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications-News Only!!! (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maverick who wrote (1320)	4/3/1998 4:22:00 PM
From: username	Respond to of 1629

Friday, Apr 3 1998 2:42PM EST UBS Securities Equity Research April 03, 1998 CISCO SYSTEMS (CSCO-OTC) - Buy CSCO: RIFTS APPEARING IN CISCO-GTE PARTNERSHIP Business: Networking supplier ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Price: 70.25 Div: Nil Mkt Cap: 77.3b Debt/TC: Price Tgt: Yld: Nil Shrs O/S: 1.1b ROE: 36% 52wk: 70.25-30.12 5yr Est: 30% BV/Shr: 5.11 LTM OCF: Cvt Secs: No ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- FY QUARTERLY ESTIMATES FISCAL YEAR ESTIMATES 1stQ 2ndQ 3rdQ 4thQ EPS P/E REV(M) 07/97 .31A .34A .35A .37A F97A 1.37 51.3 6440 07/98 .39A .43A .44E .46E F98E 1.72 40.8 8318 07/99 F99E 2.10 33.5 10683 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SUMMARY We believe that the partnership that Cisco signed last year with GTE is not going as well as Cisco had anticipated. Based on our research we believe that Cisco has recently been shut out of two key equipment areas at GTE, WAN switching and ADSL. In the WAN switching area we believe that Ascend has won a large contract to supply 200 WAN switches to the CLEC part of GTE. We also believe that the ILEC part of GTE will continue to purchase Ascend WAN switches. In the ADSL area we believe that Cisco was beaten out by Fujitsu/Orckit. HIGHLIGHTS * We believe that recently Ascend has won a large order for the CLEC side of GTE for 200 Ascend 9000s, 500s, and 550s. * We believe that Ascend is in very good standing for WAN switching on the ILEC side of GTE and will sell another 10-20 500s throughout the rest of 1998. * Additionally we believe that Fujitsu/Orckit has beaten out Cisco at GTE for ADSL deployment ANALYSIS We believe that Cisco's partnership with GTE is not going as well as Cisco had anticipated. Last year Cisco and GTE signed a partnership that stated that GTE could purchase $1 billion or more from Cisco over 5 years in key product areas such as WAN switches, routers and dial access platforms. Based on our research we believe that Cisco has recently been shut out of two key equipment areas at GTE, WAN switching and ADSL. In the WAN switching area we believe that Ascend has won a large contract to supply 200 WAN switches to the CLEC part of GTE. We also believe that the ILEC part of GTE, which is completely separate from the CLEC side, will continue to purchase Ascend WAN switches. In the ADSL area we believe that Cisco was beaten out by Fujitsu/Orckit. The dial access business is not going Cisco's way either, as we believe that Ascend continues to be the dominant supplier to GTE. We do believe however that Cisco is in good standing at GTE for routers and is selling the GSR 12008 and 7500. Ascend Winning WAN Switch Business on Two Fronts at GTE We believe that Ascend (ASND-39-Hold) has won new WAN switch business at the CLEC (Competitive Local Exchange Carrier) part of GTE and continues to sell to the ILEC (Incumbent Local Exchange Carrier) side of GTE. The CLEC side is GTE's recent entry into the competitive local exchange market and acts independently of the regulated incumbent LEC business. Based on our research we believe that within the last few weeks on the CLEC side Ascend has won a large order for 200 WAN switches including 9000s, 500s and 550s. On the more established ILEC side, GTE has recently increased the number of Ascend 500s in its network to somewhere in the teens, and will continue to install an additional 10 to 20 500s over the course of 1998. (The ILEC side of GTE also has a large installed base of Newbridge's 36150 Frame Relay switches). On the ILEC side we believe that Cisco is in very poor position with regard to WAN switches. Cisco's biggest shortfall is that it lacks good network management which hampers the ability to easily provision service, an area where Ascend excels. Cisco Apparently Loses ADSL Business at GTE as Well We believe that in addition to the loss in the WAN switching area, Cisco has lost out on the ADSL business at GTE as well. A couple of weeks ago Cisco purchased Netspeed, an ADSL start-up. It was generally thought at the time that the reason Cisco purchased Netspeed was due to Netspeed's strong standing at a couple of LECs, namely US West and GTE. At US West Cisco/Netspeed is firmly entrenched as the ADSL supplier. We believe however that at GTE, Cisco/Netspeed has lost the ADSL business to Fujitsu/Orckit. Yesterday Orckit stated that it has been selected for a large-scale rollout of ADSL at an unspecified carrier. We believe that carrier is GTE. It is our understanding that Fujitsu/Orckit is coming in at very attractive price points which helped them win the business. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - UBS Securities LLC makes a market in the securities of ASND, and CSCO.