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Non-Tech : RAINFOREST CAFE -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MaximilianII who wrote (4119)	3/30/1998 5:56:00 PM
From: Dylan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4704

Hey Everyone, The receipt estimate revisions have been posted on the site with the changes in the model ($45 per receipt instead of $40, no receipts from 0-10000). chem.ucla.edu When I get a chance, I will post a summary for the first quarter. If anyone hasn't submitted their receipts, please do so. Especially desirable are these locations: NY, Aventura, Mall of America, Sawgrass Mills, South Coast Plaza, Arizona Mills, and Palisades as data for these locations is non-existent or has a large degree of uncertainty (receipts are only a few days apart). I doubt we will ever get reports for the foreign locations.... In response to Maximilian, I agree this is an excellent time to buy the company. All of the traditional indicators (P/E, PEG, Growth Rate, Cash, Debt to Equity, etc. are in reasonable territory). Also, since RAIN prereleased some numbers last week, and since these agree quite favorably with my numbers (actually they BEAT my estimates for most locations!) I think they are in great shape to beat estimates as long as two things are true: 1) Margins stayed about the same as previous quarters 2) Preopening expenses do not significantly wipe out the huge growth in earnings. As far as hard facts, I think their confirmation of earnings at 6 locations is evidence that this model is a good approximation. The other consideration is SSS. In my opinion, as soon as more locations are included in SSS, they will be able to report that SSS are rising. This is due to the same way in which Cheesecake Factory says that they have had 20 some quarters of SSS growth. They never had to report such figures on only 4 locations. Since they are presently including only 4 locations in this calculation, and since all have only been open 18-24 months, it is a very volatile number. When they have more locations, a smaller percentage will be in their sophomore season (12-24 months "old"). This is where the greatest decrease in SSS will be seen, as confirmed by Berman at AK. Once this occurs, it should calm Wall Street. -Dylan