To: Sid Turtlman who wrote (1371 ) 4/2/1998 1:50:00 PM From: Matthew F. Kern Respond to of 2011
Sid: I can see you are wrestling with this Sid. In software & software services there is always a next wave. Each company catches some wave, and uses the revenue and momentum to catch the next wave of their choice. After 2000 IAI will be catching re-engineering and migration waves, at least. Others will follow. Software development times shorten to below 6 months, technology speeds up, the fact that this wave ends in 2000 some time is just not the big deal. Once IAI has that money, name and toehold on customers, they have a future. It's not the technical answer, but it is true more often than not. Look at IAI before acquisition by EMHART and subsequent merger with PRC. Look at I-NET prior to WANG. The momentum begets more contracts of different types. Once you have the people at desks and working together you write proposals against those in-place resources for the next new problem. Honestly Sid, that's my best guess at part of what I think you don't have in your experience base on this. The professional services business reinvents itself with each contract, and so do software product vendors with each product to some extent. Nobody has a certain future, just momentum in sales and market share. New markets pop up continuously. Look at the Web phenomenon. Look at Microsoft when they made DOS and BASIC and little else vs now. Contracts come and go, key products become secondary cash cows with little growth, the company moves on. Keep pressing for those answers on post current product ( year 2000) business, but assume they will come like with everyone else in the software industry. Ditch the assumption that nothing will come, as that would be unusual. When contracts or products fade, no biggie. When the pipeline of contracts or products fade: AHA! .........Matt PS.... about a year out for the $3.00, not on year end, and that leaves out this key last news for instance among many other things. (You are the expert on this sort of thing, I am flattered that you are interested in my guess.) Future: Imagine a migration tool from IBM COBOL II to HP COBOL, or from COBOL II w/ DB2 to ORACLE and CORBA business objects.... or from Vis Basic to ORACLE Power Objects this could be big business for IAI, and developers will be free to work on that kind of thing by year end. At the end of Y2K all the funds for software projects will be freed up and modernization efforts in the federal sector will be freed up I hear from the director at New Orleans in charge of federal systems implementation. Commercial work will be in similar status.