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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam Scrutchins who wrote (10514)	3/30/1998 11:10:00 PM
From: Andon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 213176

Unrelenting sell off for the next three months. Sam, If I am correct in my forecast it(cause/model)doesn't matter. If I am incorrect in my forecast it(cause/model)doesn't matter. Models of reality are just that, models. "The territory is not the map" "Causes" are just "after the fact" excuses designed to soothe simple minds. "Help me, I'm melting" \|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\| vvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvv Andon, It is NOT specific enough for me! You are stating a CONDITION, an expected future condition if you will. What I would NEED for you to add to this statement about expected future condition is the CAUSE of the condition. WHY do you anticipate the decline? Is it a bad Q2? If so, then provide your estimates and the reason for them. Is it some anticipated event that you foresee? If so, then what is the event and why will it negatively effect the stock price? Is it some technical analysis model you employ. If so what is the model? Without the causal information to support your anticipated condition, your forecast is useless and meaningless. I welcome your opinion, Andon, because it can provide balance for this wildly optimistic board. But that opinion needs an analytical basis, and so far, you have not provided this. Have a good night, Andon, and if you are indeed short, I hope you have a terrible day tomorrow. Sam

To: Sam Scrutchins who wrote (10514)	3/31/1998 12:39:00 AM
From: Richard J. Byrd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213176

Sam: Andon certainly did not express any rationale for his prediction of an AAPL selloff in the coming months, and I don't profess to know HIS reasons. However, I too am worried about AAPL's ability to maintain its stock price, and I can express some reasons. This thread is awfully bullish, so I hope I won't get flamed for expressing an opposing view. I have been a Mac user since my 128K Mac in 1984 and I still maintain an all Mac office, so I cannot be dismissed as an anti-Mac person. The Mac operating system still lags behind Windows, especially in multitasking operations. Rhapsody may fix this, but it is not here yet and it too will have its infancy problems, meanwhile Win 98 will be out. The new movement to cheaper and cheaper desktop computers does not bode well for the Mac. It has always been overpriced, especially at the high end, and I believe AAPL will have a difficult time meeting this new price level of competition. Corporate America continues to move away from the Mac leaving it smaller and smaller niches in which to thrive. AAPL may survive, but it needs to get its ass in gear real fast and produce a superior product at a cheap price. This is not easy; the competition does not stand still in the high tech business and wait for you to catch up. AAPL lost precious time in the past two years and I just don't know if it can make it up. I still love the Mac, but I'm realistic - and I'm worried. Dick