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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim McCormack who wrote (21481)	3/31/1998 8:54:00 AM
From: Matt Webster	Respond to of 42771

On 5.0 and NDS... I just wanted to make a comment or two after speaking to some Novell reps at FOSE, a computer expo that was just in DC. I still do not see what the major reasons to go to 5.0 are that didn't exist already. IP integration has been available. IP addressing is not hard, thereby negating the ease of use argument. IP gateway has been available from Novell and others. For file and print services, it simply does not matter which protocol should be used. Java console also matters very little. Installation was not that hard. Sure, it wasn't graphical, but so what? Oracle for NT is a nice bundle. This hurts Oracle more than it helps Novell. Anyone Novell 4.11 users who need a database already have one, and it's probably running on NT Server. Still, bundling Oracle can't hurt Novell. Despite this, I'm convinced more than before that Novell can turnaround. Their core is not NetWare but NDS. NDS for NT could be a huge hit. As a sysadmin type, I would love to have NDS for NT running on all my machines. This puts Novell in the same category of companies as Symantec, Network Associates, etc. who make value-added software that is a "must" but is not part of the operating system. The Microsoft equivalent is SMS Server, part of BackOffice. I would rather have them compete here than with Windows NT directly. I do not expect very impressive revenues out of Novell. We are between product cycles, so that will hurt as we wait for people to choose between 5.0 and 4.0. Still, Wall Street is forward looking. Also, NDS is not very expensive, both good and bad, so I don't know how big of a contribution it will make. A speculative buy, I suppose. Matt

To: Jim McCormack who wrote (21481)	3/31/1998 9:21:00 AM
From: ToySoldier	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 42771

Jim, I have to answer that question (although I did about a week ago). Companies that are not currently at IntranetWare (4.11) on all their servers MUST upgrade their operating systems before the year 2000 in order to implement Y2K compliant code - MUST. Therefor, if you were a company that had 100 NetWare 4.0, 4.01, or 4.02 servers, then why would you pay for an upgrade to IntranetWare when you could jump right to NetWare 5. The same is true for any NetWare 3.11 or previous server code that is out there. They MUST upgrade to either IntranetWare or NetWare 5. So tell me Jim, what would you do? Simply ignore the upgrade and risk your company after Jan 1 2000. That is why I think Novell's NetWare 5 sales will go through the roof! Not only will Novell get the sales from those organizations that are leading edge and/or need the technologies that NetWare 5 has to offer, but, thanks to the Y2K situation, Novell will finally get the foot-draggers off the fence and upgrade. This results in BIG REVENUE for Novell folks! This results in BIG Q3/1998 Q4/1998 Q1/1999 profits! If I were those companies, I would be testing the NetWare 5 betas in my lab, and start making migration planning for late this year. By that time Novell will likely have released one or two Service Patches to NetWare 5 and would have worked out the initial bugs. Then I would begin implementing the upgrade to NetWare 5 in the last quarter of 1998 and first quarter of 1999. And Jim, before you respond with "by Novell forcing people to upgrade, many will be pissed and go to MSFT NT", let me answer that. NOT! (Although I'm sure a few dummies might be out there that run there IT department by their emotions and not their brains). 1) If your company has a large investment in any file/print infrastructure (regardless if its NOVL or MSFT) you will do anything to avoid a transition to another platform. This activity is very costly and very disruptive. With year 2000 just around the corner, thats all an IT shop need, another huge complexity in the mix. 2) MSFT NT4 is still not Y2K compliant and MSFT has not yet given out any action plans to their customer on what they should do with NT4. My guess is that MSFT will eventually say that their NT4 customers will have to upgrade to NT5 (similar to what Novell did). The bad thing about that (if that is what MSFT will do) is that NT5 will not be available until Q2 1999. Then with the first service patch not for about another Quarter, this gives most companies no time to safely implement NT5. That is why Gartner Group has strongly recommended to their subscribers NOT to upgrade to NT until after 2000. So there is my short and sweet answer as to why people WILL BUY NetWare 5. ToySoldier

To: Jim McCormack who wrote (21481)	4/1/1998 12:32:00 AM
From: hhill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

re: But will you upgrade to 5.0? Since we are currently running nw 4.10 and already enjoy the benefits of nds the move to nw 5.0 for us will be based on need. When we need what nw 5.0 can provide we will upgrade. We will move to nw 5 in the summer of 99 due to the y2000 issue. Nw 4.10 has a few utilities that are not completely 2000 compliant, although the core os is ok. As I said before I can't see any benefit to moving to nt 4 or 5 as THE network os for us. Active directory will be playing catch up with nds for at least 3 years after it is released. Even the "vapor ware" propaganda from ms regarding active directory reveals it's weakness. If I need an application that only nt can provide I will put in an nt server and run it as part of my netware network. This has happened twice so far. I see nt servers as an addition to the network, not a solution. When or if java takes off I can see nw gaining even more ground as an application server, possibly eliminating the need for nt servers completely (long term - pure speculation). If you had asked me last year I would be more cautious, nt seemed to be on everyones "must have" list. However my perception of a turn around in novl's prospects and their renewed drive to supply products that businesses need, plus my less than happy experience with nt network administration have me re-thinking the ms jugernaught. They are really trying hard; just look at nw for small business- 5 user os, oracle server, groupwise 5.2, fastrack server, dial up isp connectivity, ca virus - backup and fax products all bundled for under $600. Remarkable. Back to the point; I think it is the nw 3.x installed base that will make or break novl in the next 2 years, not the nw 4.x users. These users have to upgrade to nw 5 or nt before 2000. If novl can convince them that they can provide the required services then lookout. Last time I looked the installed 3.x base was around 50% of the nw users. Imagine the potential revenues for novl.