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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: long-gone who wrote (9086)	3/31/1998 9:14:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116756

Has ; Anyone totaled up the put options on Gold, like some mining companies hedge their output with put options to sell forward at a certain point. Not trying to hype one it was the hedge position that PCU had in copper that caused me to buy her back when she was 12.75-13.50..but what I'm driving at is if the miners have a lot of hedge positions, then the middle man ( buyer ) has an insentive to get the price up. Who sold all the puts some time back , likley people that deal in gold and figured with what they got , for the put, and at x strike price it was a good deal at the time, any way I don't know where to get the total put/call options on gold. Or even copper..just that some miners publish their position such as PCU did ..and I feel if enough of them are out there is one more reason to put upward pressure , or at least a floor on the price. I know of one gold miner that has about their entire years production locked in at $345..seems they paid for the puts mostly by selling calls up around the $420 range..now they do not need to put it out at $345, if the price goes above that, and I'm sure if it were to go to $420 they could and would jack up production to meet the calls.. Back to question , what does the total option positions taken out last year seem to say about the future of gold ? How many miners are hedged ? Jim

To: long-gone who wrote (9086)	3/31/1998 9:04:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116756

Richard my got feeling that Euro and Japan would not allow dollar to undermine them clearing pathwy for gold...whether it is $350-400 this year (or less does not bother me that much. I think we should see $330 by June that is based on the last short but very meningful run before gold dropped to its low.. I am holding/accumulating my portfolio including gold for a long hole (there is little doubt in my mind that $ will have a major collapse in the frame of 12-72 months. Other investments like palladium which I view as "trading opportunity" is like any other trading allocation...buy/sell on gut feeling...

To: long-gone who wrote (9086)	3/31/1998 9:11:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116756

INTERVIEW-Gold prices seen higher - Deutsche Bank 01:05 p.m Mar 31, 1998 Eastern NEW YORK, March 31 (Reuters) - Sentiment is improving in the gold market, with central banks and producers much less active in the first quarter this year, while demand from Asia has not fallen as much as expected, according to Deutsche Bank analysts on a conference call with brokers, dealers, and fund managers in the U.S. Tuesday. ''The bottom is probably in for the gold price on a longer term basis and in subsequent months dips in the gold prices will bottom out at progressively higher levels and the rebounds will be stronger,'' Charles von Arentschildt, Deutsche Bank's New York based managing director of bullion trading, told Reuters in an interview following the conference call. ''For the time being we don't see gold falling much below $295.00 an ounce, and the $310-320 level may be seen in the next few weeks'' he said. Spot gold prices were trading around $301.30 an ounce midday Tuesday, after trading a $290-305 range in the past two months, following a recovery from 18 year lows around $277 in mid-January this year. ''Market sentiment has become much more favorable, as uncertainty about central bank activity has waned and as many of the large hedge fund short positions have been liquidated recently,'' von Arentschildt said. ''In my view, European central banks from May this year will no longer be sellers of gold for the next 18-24 months, but more gold lending may be seen pushing gold lease rates lower.'' A decision on the size of the gold reserves of the planned European Central Bank (ECB) is due in May, after which the Maastricht Treaty requires gold sales above a certain limit by the individual European central banks to be approved by the new ECB. ''Gold as a percentage of ECB reserves is likely to be around 15-20 pct, rather than the 5-15 pct expected by the market earlier this year, but it could be as high as 25 pct,'' von Arentschildt said. ''While some gold sales by national European central banks may eventuate in the longer term, we expect to see more clarity and transparency on reserve management policy in future, partly as a result of the discussions that took place at Davos this year,'' he said. At the World Economic Forum at Davos, Switzerland in February, talks were held between major gold mining company chief executives and central bankers under the auspices of the World Gold Council. ''Other factors helping to support gold prices and revive demand in Asia include the realization that gold did perform its traditional role as a store of value during the East Asian financial crisis of late,'' he said. Hedging by gold miners had also waned when gold prices fell below $300 an ounce earlier this year, Deutsche Bank analysts said. ''Producer activity was much lighter in the first quarter this year, and the hedging being done now is project specific,'' Deutsche Bank director Mike Nutt said. ''There has also been a couple of major buybacks and couple of small ones done in the the first quarter.'' ''The $300 level has turned into a key level below which producers are reluctant to hedge and they are now unlikely to do so seriously until the $330 level is seen.'' ''Two or three months ago, the market was contemplating gold prices dropping to the $260 an ounce level, but now gold prices have recovered some ground despite the second biggest sale by a central bank in history. On March 18 the Belgian central bank announced it had sold 299 tonnes of gold in recent months. ''In addition, the news that Belgium has decided not to proceed with its 133 tonnes gold bullion coin program, after the bullion sale last month, is evidence that Belgium's long program of gold sales is over,'' he said. Belgium had been a steady seller of gold since the late 1980's when it held 1,329 tonnes of the metal in reserves. ((New York Commodities Desk, 212-859-1641; clive.mckeef+reuters.com)) ^REUTERS@