To: XOsDaWAY2GO who wrote (2116 ) 4/1/1998 9:10:00 AM From: Ms. X Respond to of 34816
To all: From Tom an Economic outlook.... ECONOMIC OUTLOOK The latest Commerce Department reports indicate that sales and business figures show an easing up of the rate at which business is easing off, which is taken as proof of Mr. Clinton's contention that there is a slow but noticeable slowing up of the slowdown. In order to clarify the cautious terminology of the experts, it should be noted that a slowing up of the slowdown is not as good as an upturn in the down curve, but it is a good deal better than either a speedup of the slowdown or a deepening of the down curve; and it does suggest that the climate is about right for an adjustment to the readjustment. Regarding unemployment, we find a definite decrease in the rate of increase, which clearly shows that there is a letting up of the letdown. Of course, if the slowdown should speed up, the decrease in the rate of increase of unemployment would turn into an increase in the rate of decrease of employment. In other words, the deceleration would be accelerated. But the indicators suggest rather a leveling off, referred to on Wall Street as bumping along rock bottom. This will be followed by a gentle pickup, then a faster pickup, a slowdown of the pickup, and finally a leveling off again. However, it is hard to tell before a slowdown is completed whether the pickup is going to be fast, particularly because of such factors as the strength of recovery in the downturn and the power of the decline in the upturn. Yes, it's April Fool's day. I thought a little levity was needed and would cheer everyone up. Of course, some people may be able to understand the above forecast. It's about what we hear from Washington every day. Have a good day, Tom.