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To: Michael Collings who wrote (8936)3/31/1998 11:14:00 PM
From: The Vinman  Respond to of 27307
 
<<This is a safe haven stock>>

With all due respect, if a stock with a PE of over 800 and a market cap of 4.6 BILLION on less than 100 million in revs is a safe haven , this market has truly turned into a modern day fiasco..... it's time to short YHOO, Q1 is over......as far as AMZN is concerned, they will have their lunch handed to them and then some by Barnes and Noble and Borders, it's like NSCP vs. MSFT...

Vinman



To: Michael Collings who wrote (8936)3/31/1998 11:24:00 PM
From: Oeconomicus  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 27307
 
So Michael, to make 4 cents, they'd need some $63 million of revenue, right? 4 cents on 45.83mm shares (shouldn't that number be higher?) is $1.83mm. Subtract the $1.2mm of interest and divide the resulting $.63mm by .01 (assuming the 99% rather than 103% expense ratio) for a revenue target of $63mm. Anybody think that is achievable? OK, figure they can round 3.6 cents up to 4 and still meet the estimates. That only takes $45mm in revenue. Any buyers?

BTW, some of those expense line assumptions are significantly higher than they mentioned in the conference call. From my notes, I had 8-9% for G&A and 14% for Product Development vs. the 10% and 17% figures you noted. At the new numbers, the gross margin has to improve a full point just to break even on operations. Wonder what changed.<g>

Bob