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Technology Stocks : THREE FIVE SYSTEM (TFS) - up from here? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Noblesse Oblige who wrote (1183)	4/1/1998 10:07:00 AM
From: michael c. dodge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3247

You guys.....I would not expect too much out of the digital projector market. We have all read estimates that this will be "a billion dollar market". Probably, but that is a gross sales estimate. The display modules are selling for $30 in some instances (Kopin to MOT, but for the cellphone direct-view-with-optics app). Even if they bring $100, the unit volume is not there. If the projector price were to drop to an average of $2,000 for a VGA machine (where it is quickly headed), that is only 500,000 units, or a $50,000,000 display module market at $100 per. In our case, some of that module revenue goes to silicon, not LCD. Take away Infocus, Inc. with its 25% market share devoted to the TI DLP device (first to market by a year, at least), and the available pie shrinks by 25%. My numbers may well be off---it won't matter. The projector market is not ultimately a large part of the answer. Its just the only market extant today. There are maybe 20 companies working on a micro-display of this (LCoS) general nature---several competing technologies. All in search of a market. Other apps must emerge, and will. The desktop monitor (CRT) replacement market is the (or one) holy grail for these microdisplays, via rear-view projection. We are trying to get an OEM partner in this market. Compaq has apparently declined our proposal, whatever it was. If we (and NSM) get an OEM taker for this application, the larger holders of this stock (including me and others on thread) can go to the barn. Picture quality, form factor, and price-in-volume are everything. LCoS and friends win on each count. However, the amount of invested capital, the support and supply infrastructure, and the position on the economic experience curve are huge (HUGE) advantages for CRT. Peter Drucker says the advantages of incumbency are so significant, a new technology must be 10-X better than the entrenched one it seeks to replace, or it cannot overcome. I do not think it takes 10X in the tech business. Last note: Why do I feel like I have to spend $2,000 and invest a day in meetings (flew in and out, and never left the airport) to gather the rest of the information about my investment in TFS ??? I like the way they're running the company. I do not completely like the way they're running ME. Some shareholders need more information than others. mcd