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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Candle stick who wrote (5835)	4/1/1998 9:43:00 AM
From: Pancho Villa	Respond to of 18691

CS: RE: Mr.Cramer: He may be a better media person than he is an investor. Let's see. Pancho

To: Candle stick who wrote (5835)	4/1/1998 9:45:00 AM
From: Cosmo Daisey	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18691

CS, This is the signal that Cramer (big shot Harvard grad trashed the Yale Bull Dogs on CNBC (Cambridge scum) ) is closing his position. cdaiseyPhD@go/bulldogs.edu

To: Candle stick who wrote (5835)	4/1/1998 2:00:00 PM
From: Beltropolis Boy	Respond to of 18691

>what exactly justifies the internet sectors crazy valuations is still >a mystery to me and even most analysts. No one has yet to provide a >solid analysis.......the sector is working on the "greater fool" >theory, whereby I buy today because tomorrow there will be a bigger >fool willing to pay more to me......no reason to buy other that it >keeps going up....soon as the fools are all used up...CRASH! while i wouldn't qualify this as "solid" analysis, mary meeker, internet 'demigoddess' of morgan stanley, recently touched on this exact conundrum. her rationale on the insane valuations, fwiw: 1) The growth opportunity for the Internet is huge, and it's evolving so quickly that it's nearly impossible for investors to use traditional valuation tools to value companies--investors have extended their valuation time horizons--and when this happens in high-growth, seemingly open-ended markets, valuations can get very high. 2) There aren't many public market vehicles available to play Internet growth, and most institutional and individual investors want to be positioned in the sector. And there's a scarcity of leading companies--this creates an imbalance with more demand than supply of shares in the sector. 3) Recently, money flows out of traditional technology stalwarts, such as Intel, Motorola, Compaq, and Oracle (like lots of dough), have moved into other high-growth tech areas that benefit from Internet growth--and many of these moves have been into semi-illiquid stocks. 4) Short squeezes have taken place in the shares of many Internet companies--over recent months, many investors have sold short shares of many semi-illiquid Internet companies that they perceived were overvalued (Amazon.com is the best example here)--but instead of falling, many of the stocks have risen and many of the short-sellers have covered their shorts (or purchased shares) and have, in fact, driven stock prices higher. then again, as an internet investment strategy she recommends you buy the following pastiche of diversified gems.... i'll let you horde the 'a's, canstick........;^) (sorry) 1) Own a portfolio of leading/differentiated Internet companies--like Cisco, WorldCom, @home, Microsoft, America Online, Yahoo, Amazon.com, Intuit, TMP Worldwide, and Dell. 2) Take a long-term view, don't own full positions and hope to add to holdings on weakness. If past is prologue, we should have some hefty valuation corrections, it's just a question of when.