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Biotech / Medical : Nortran Pharmaceutical -NRT.V -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jon Smith who wrote (341)4/1/1998 3:14:00 PM
From: Paul S.  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1185
 
The VSE trading system has been down since this morning, all reports say that it will not resume until tomorrow.



To: Jon Smith who wrote (341)4/1/1998 3:38:00 PM
From: F. Jay Abella, III  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1185
 
Paul:

Expert opinion? I'm flattered.

I can comment on the "news" from yesterday which says the company is in negotiations for a deal. Here is what I like, in order of preference, when a biotech does a deal. Keep in mind we have no idea as to what compound(s) or what application - the AAA pipeline has several of each.

1) UP FRONT PAYMENT
2) UP FRONT PAYMENT (worth stating twice)
3) Equity accumulation of shares on the open market a la CCM (no dilution) up to, but not to exceed, 20% of the company
4) Transfer of long term ww development costs from NRT to collaborator or formation of a joint venture into which R&D money is paid yearly.
5) Out of the money warrants for more equity a la CCM. (I'm less enthusiastic about an out of the money convert)
6) Milestone payments for all drugs in all geographic locations
7) Royalty revenues of not less than 10% per product or at least 50% profit share in a joint venture
8) Board seat for collaborator

I realize these are ambitious but the closer NRT gets to these things, the better the market will view the deal.

W/R/T up front payment - a $20mm cdn upfront deal would add $0.65 in cash to the company and spark another $1.6mm infusion of cash into NRT from CCM warrants (assuming full dilution). This to me adds another $0.70 to the $2.00 stock price immediately, with more windfall from discounted flows from milestones and royalties at whatever price the market will bear.

I will repeat!!! - what we have seen to date is nothing more than the stock finally going where it should have been for the last year. I put a price tag on the shares at $2.16 in December 1997, and predicted on Jan 8, 1998 that NRT would at least double (from $1.06) in 1998. See my valuation for NRT here:

westergaard.com:8080/Med/Valuation/valnort9747.htm

For what its worth. FJA

PS - I would like to see how all this breaks down when and if a press release is forthcoming. That way, everyone is fully informed and the VSE can rest easy that NRT is nothing more than a great company.