To: Jon Smith who wrote (341 ) 4/1/1998 3:38:00 PM From: F. Jay Abella, III Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1185
Paul: Expert opinion? I'm flattered. I can comment on the "news" from yesterday which says the company is in negotiations for a deal. Here is what I like, in order of preference, when a biotech does a deal. Keep in mind we have no idea as to what compound(s) or what application - the AAA pipeline has several of each. 1) UP FRONT PAYMENT 2) UP FRONT PAYMENT (worth stating twice) 3) Equity accumulation of shares on the open market a la CCM (no dilution) up to, but not to exceed, 20% of the company 4) Transfer of long term ww development costs from NRT to collaborator or formation of a joint venture into which R&D money is paid yearly. 5) Out of the money warrants for more equity a la CCM. (I'm less enthusiastic about an out of the money convert) 6) Milestone payments for all drugs in all geographic locations 7) Royalty revenues of not less than 10% per product or at least 50% profit share in a joint venture 8) Board seat for collaborator I realize these are ambitious but the closer NRT gets to these things, the better the market will view the deal. W/R/T up front payment - a $20mm cdn upfront deal would add $0.65 in cash to the company and spark another $1.6mm infusion of cash into NRT from CCM warrants (assuming full dilution). This to me adds another $0.70 to the $2.00 stock price immediately, with more windfall from discounted flows from milestones and royalties at whatever price the market will bear. I will repeat!!! - what we have seen to date is nothing more than the stock finally going where it should have been for the last year. I put a price tag on the shares at $2.16 in December 1997, and predicted on Jan 8, 1998 that NRT would at least double (from $1.06) in 1998. See my valuation for NRT here:westergaard.com :8080/Med/Valuation/valnort9747.htm For what its worth. FJA PS - I would like to see how all this breaks down when and if a press release is forthcoming. That way, everyone is fully informed and the VSE can rest easy that NRT is nothing more than a great company.