To: Steve Fancy who wrote (1386 ) 4/1/1998 12:08:00 PM From: Steve Fancy Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 22640
FOCUS-Brazil fin min Malan sees rate cut in April Reuters, Wednesday, April 01, 1998 at 11:58 By Ben Hirschler LONDON, April 1 (Reuters) - Brazilian Finance Minister Pedro Malan said on Wednesday that interest rates would fall again this month as the country, roiled by Asian turmoil, maintained its recovery. "The next meeting of the committee on monetary policy of the central bank is on April 15 -- and on April 15 you will know what is the new, lower level of interest rates," Malan told a meeting of the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London. A rate cut is widely expected in Brazilian markets but Malan declined to speculate by how much rates would fall. Last month, Brazil's Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) cut the prime lending rate to 28 percent, down from 43 percent at the height of the Asian financial crisis in late October. Malan said current rates were unsustainable, but added that the pace and scale of further reductions depended on progress to cut the public sector deficit. "The speed at which we will move (on cutting rates) over the medium term depends on the speed, and how confident we are, in changing the fiscal regime of the country on a durable basis," he said. "This will continue to be the main challenge to consolidate what we have achieved so far on the inflation front and in sustained growth." Brazil has experienced tough times since October, when the government doubled interest rates and introduced a major fiscal austerity package to head off attacks from speculators who saw the real as vulnerable due to the country's twin current account and fiscal deficits. Confidence has returned recently, evidenced by record net inflows of $12 billion in March, this week's larger-than-expected $1.25 billion 10-year global bond issue and an accelerating privatisation programme. Malan said Brazil would register its sixth successive year of economic growth in 1998, although the rate of increase would be less than expected before the Asian crisis. He declined to give a figure. At the same time, inflation would fall for the fifth year with most economists expecting an annual rate of between three and four percent, Malan said. The current account deficit was set to fall from last year's 4.15 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) and foreign direct investment would continue to cover much of the gap. "It will be lower this year. The market projections I have seen over the last few weeks for the current account deficit this year range from 3.5 to 3.8 percent," he said. Brazil would be able to resolve its balance of payments problems without recourse to either protectionism or a change in exchange rate policy. "We are going to keep our exchange rate policy -- it is flexible enough," Malan said. Tackling public overspending was the top priority but Malan said the issue should be kept in perspective. The total public sector deficit rose to 5.89 percent of GDP in 1997, and including privatisation receipts the figure was 3.78 percent, he said. Brazil's privatisation programme is set to move up a gear this year with the sale of telecommunications and further power disposals, including this month's sale of Sao Paulo utility Eletropaulo. Malan said Brazil had accumulated nearly $50 billion since the privatisation programme started in 1991 -- and a similar amount was yet to come. "We are at an historical juncture in Brazil. We have a window of opportunity in the next two or three years, as we have this privatisation revenue coming in, to consolidate changes." uk.emergingmarkets.news@reuters.com)) Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service