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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (9209)	4/1/1998 4:18:00 PM
From: rhet0ric	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

But what does experience teach you? When will such adjectives be applied to AOL? I'll tell you when. After the stock is already 40 - 50% off its high. You're right. By then the big downtrend profits will be missed. There has to be some in-between point, after the pro-PR has stalled but before the anti-PR has fully kicked in. God only knows when that will happen. Maybe after an EPS downside surprise this month? I have to confess I'm getting a little nervous about trying to pick a time to short this thing. If I'd been less cautious, I probably would've shorted ages ago--and been writhing in pain like many on this thread while I watched post-split +$4 (+$8 pre-split!) days unfold before my eyes. I feel for you guys. This stock will eventually fall below all of your average prices, I'm sure, but who knows how long that will take. rhet0ric

To: yard_man who wrote (9209)	4/1/1998 11:59:00 PM
From: Tim Kenney	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13594

>Buyers have taken the news of price increases from other ISPs as bullish for AOL. Clearly, it is not.< Please explain. If others do not compete with AOL on price and most users are too stupid to know how bad AOL is, won't more people be attracted to AOL? This allows AOL to gain even greater critical mass which generates more advertizing revenue and eventually enables them UNDERPRICE the competitors and gain a quasi-monopoly. I do not see how competitors raising prices does anything for them. If the smartest move ATT can think of is to raise prices, they ought to just close shop on the ISP business. If they want the business, they ought to make short-term monetary sacrifices to attract business. Once users are used to their service, then ATT can stick them with higher prices. I can only see price increases in this atmosphere as a way of marginalizing ATT as a player.