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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jtechkid who wrote (18380)	4/1/1998 6:16:00 PM
From: Stacy J. Matter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Jtech: I agree that Japan's economy is in shambles right now, but who is to say that Taiwan isn't taking advantage of Japan's fragile economy and making an attempt to become the semi leader. I'm sure Taiwan isn't waiting for Japan to get its act together(or SKorea either) I'm sure Japan's capital spending for semi equipement will be down in the short term, but they will have to spend sooner or later to keep up. AMAT very well could miss short term earnings estimates, but as you stated AMAT looks very good long term. Wall St is very aware of the short term problems that SEA is causing, and I am just as surprised as you that the AMATs and KLACs of the world can go up with what looks like bad news. It seems that the St. has dicounted short term problems and is looking out over the next 12-18 months. I'm sure that we will see some weakness in this sector before all is said and done, but I really think any weakness will be very short term in nature and would use that opportunity to add to my position(or cover if you are short) AMAT may warn, but IMHO that is already priced in the stock. We will soon find out. Good luck Stacy

To: jtechkid who wrote (18380)	4/1/1998 6:30:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Respond to of 70976

jtechkid, from today's South China Morning Post. Are you related to these guys? Ramsey Thursday April 2 1998 Global stocks forecast to crash 40pc amid loose monetary policy JAKE LLOYD-SMITH The world's equity markets will crash this year, losing 30 to 40 per cent of their value, according to investment consultants Independent Strategy. The London-based firm said leading stock markets were being buttressed by vast flows of state-printed cash, while the real United States economy showed signs that its strong-growth low-inflation track would collapse. European markets would be savaged by the forthcoming Wall Street implosion; Tokyo policy-makers would fail to turn around Asia's largest economy; and the region's battered, debt-burdened markets could not recover without a healthy Japan, it said. "We believe that 1998 will see a market crash that will knock 30 to 40 per cent of most equity values," Independent Strategy said. "Unfortunately, the drivers that make such Armageddon more likely could also run markets 10 to 15 per cent higher before it happens, only to fall further in nemesis." Deep in denial, most global investors were ignoring the danger signs, it said, adding that its call early last month for an end to the recovery in Asian markets had been ill-timed. "Our view of markets [was] losing you money [but] we still don't think that you should get sucked into committing to asset markets now," the company said. In response to the Asian crisis, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan were "printing money like there was no tomorrow, and the Bundesbank is running the loosest monetary policy Europe has ever known". When the presses were halted - or ran slower - the markets would "look worse", it said. The pattern of macroeconomic indicators from the United States was poor, with equity prices and labour costs both rising, while productivity gains were falling and monetary policy was loose. "Like any other investor, we know this means the end is nigher, but we don't know when." European equity markets - already more expensive than US counterparts on earnings-based measures - would topple in the wake of US falls. In Japan, the politicians and bureaucrats would fail to kick-start a sputtering economy and as recession bit, the yen would hit 160 to the dollar and the benchmark Nikkei-225 Index would plummet below 10,000 points. Yesterday, a dollar bought 133.22 yen and the Nikkei closed at 16,241.66. "Japan is to Asia, what the US was to Mexico [after the peso crisis]. The best prospect for Asia is a stronger Japanese economy and yen, but there is no sign of that yet," it said. The region, without a powerful Japanese economy to buy Asian exports and saddled by vast corporate debt, would continue to languish, the firm said. There were additional dangers posed by a devaluation of the yuan - which would happen before next March - and possible external financing crises in Russia or Brazil, it said. "Mexico's quoted corporate debt to equity ratio was only 76 per cent at its peak in 1994-95 crisis, while Crisis Asia's ratios are 400 to 600 per cent. Mexico's debt problem was mainly in the public and banking sectors," it said. "Investors buying into Asian quoted markets today will lose their money and deserve to. Most of the corporations whose equity they seek to purchase have none."