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Technology Stocks : Jabil Circuit (JBL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom W who wrote (3522)	4/2/1998 4:43:00 AM
From: Wrig	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6317

I understand how most people use the 4 quarters of the Fiscal year to assess growth, and how one Fiscal year is compared to the next. But my point is that even though JBIL has and probably will continue to show the predicted 30% growth, the EARNINGS number (used to determine the P/E) will be only BARELY higher after 12 months. That means the only way for the stock price to go up in the next 12 months is if the market decides that JBIL deserves a larger P/E. Obviously we all think it does, because the current P/E is much less than the growth rate. But what if JBIL stock DOES reach a 30 P/E in the next month or so? THEN what would it do for the next 10 months? Languish at the same stock price (w/ 30 PE instead of 17 PE)until summer 1999? When earnings stay the same, the stock price increases when the P/E is allowed to increase. And the P/E can only go so far.... *********** "Annual earnings are currently at $1.86: 3Q '97 -- $0.38 4Q '97 -- $0.47 1Q '98 -- $0.49 2Q '98 -- $0.52 When 3Q'98 comes out (if at 45 cents as predicted vs year-ago 38) then EPS will be $1.93. That's 3.8% above current EPS. When 4Q'98 comes out (if at 46 cents as predicted vs year-ago 47) then EPS will drop to $1.92. After 1Q of '99 (if they meet estimates of 51 cents) then annual EPS will be at $1.94. After 2Q of '99 (if they meet estimates of 56 cents) then EPS will be at $1.98. That's a 6.5% increase over the current EPS in the next 4 quarters."