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To: Allen Benn who wrote (2975)4/2/1998 12:33:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10309
 
Allen,

question on the economics of whatever this WIN/CE/embedded vaporware.

I assume we all agree that MSFT has a monopoly in OS. The cost of WIN95, soon WIN98, at around $50(?) was a fraction of the cost of a $2000+ PC. Now with the sub $1000 and talk of sub $500 PC, the cost of the OS could be 5-10% of the PC. Do you think the boxmakers are going to team up soon and squeeze MSFT, or start calling J Reno's hot line?

Does the embedded world have room for the type of profit margin that MSFT is used to? It seems unlikely that MSFT is going to be able to monopolize any RTOS. Why would they have any advantage at all? In the end, they may succeed in bringing a lot more attention to this arena and benefit WIND.

Come to think of it, I better run out and buy some more WIND on the pull back this morning.

Ramsey



To: Allen Benn who wrote (2975)4/2/1998 1:26:00 PM
From: Rodney Saunders  Respond to of 10309
 
If your comments concerning "WIND is a fighting machine, not an arms merchant." is true and that is the position that WIND would have taken if approached by MSFT, then INTS has a great opportunity to partner.

The growth of the embedded systems industry, probably out paces WIND and INTS collective ability to market directly. With out debating the technical merits of any combined RTOS/CE product, anyone partnering with MSFT should have a much greater access to the market.

For the record I am long the embedded industry and INTS, but cannot buy into WIND at $1 Billion market cap.

IMHO -- Rod



To: Allen Benn who wrote (2975)4/2/1998 5:39:00 PM
From: J.Gold  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10309
 
Allen,

In my previous post I worried aloud about MSFT's muscle tactics and the movement in WIND today is, I'm sure, a manifestation of MSFT's first real blast at RTOS vendors. I also noticed very little movement in INTS and MWAR which indicates that WIND is recognized as the leader and the only company with "something to lose". I'm not overly concerned about daily movements, just long term prospects.

I agree with your "fighting machine" analogy and would have never invested in WIND if I thought they would capitulate to MSFT's whims and try to sell or partner for a quick buck. I too think it will be very interesting to see how the RTOS market plays out over the next few years (interesting, but not risk free). I think the answer lies in the similarities and differences between MSFT's current product/markets and where they are looking to go. On the upside for WIND, I feel that MSFT could try to bull their "OS's will always be written just beyond the reach of the HW they are written for" philosophy into this marketplace. If they do, it won't work. On the downside, MSFT sees the potential (unlike IBM (or anyone else) in the early days of the PC and DOS) and obviously has the resource to stick it out. I think WIND can build advantages in the time MSFT builds "real time features" into CE. What I'm not sure about is how many advantages can be built in a year by a company WIND's size in a market with such vast potential. What are your feelings in that regard? Anyone else (like David L) care to comment? Also, what marketing differences will MSFT find in this industry? How quickly can they overcome them?

I will offer one prediction. Mark B. will soon post on the thread explaining why it is all over for WIND.