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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis who wrote (18395)	4/1/1998 10:25:00 PM
From: jtechkid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

well microchip and dsc pre announcement basicly blaming asia- my point is eps -they are all coming down dramatically to buy a stock just to buy it is not rational. the one problem with the techs is everyone's got a buy and they love them with upgrades. usually you find a bottom when wall street throws in the towel-which is not happening-its a strange market where current valuation completely out of whack----i would rather be short or in cash and take my chances .the last four years have been unbelievable to me and everyone . the problem is conviction i and lot of people-proffessional and threads-see no reason why these stocks are going up-but they afraid to miss the market so they throw money in the market hesitantly-i'm convicted with my opinion and you have to stick it out. i mean in the last ten years if anyone missed the street you would get punished dramatically-now people shrug it off---if klac is missing the street so is amat but more important klac said nothing positive in their report. also, as i've been saying downcycles don't last one quarter-i think we are at minimum three quarters from any upturn in booking. my experience with semi's is their is usually a point during a downcycle where i say to myself i can't believe this stock is this cheap. amat 3xsales, my eps are around 1.10(might be high) 33pe, because you usually have negative surprises in the downturn . thats all i'm saying , maybe its different this time. who knows.its fun though