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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (18396)	4/1/1998 11:11:00 PM
From: roly	Respond to of 70976

Jacob, <Does someone know something I don't?> These are my opinions Factor 1 Remember the slogan "It's the economy stupid" that won the election for Bill? I've heard most analyst saying "It's the interest rate, stupid". Why fight it? We now know that chunks of money are funneled to the market thru Mutual Funds by hardworking americans who doesn't follow the market as we do. They know that they can't keep the money in CDs. So as long as the interest rate is low, stocks have no way to go except up. Further, the new generation of investors are long termers and have seen the market bounced from the 1987 and 1997 corrections. As I have stated, the Asian situation helped. If not for it, most likely we would have the rate hike yesterday the way this economy is going. I believe this will be a key signal. If Allan G sees the Asian situation is stabilizing and our economy is still very strong, he'll put a brake and raise the rate. Factor 2 Although Asia had been a scare, I agree with Abby Cohen when she quoted that "Asia is less dangerous now!". Transparency is happening in their economic system and further, guess who is taking advantage of the strong dollar vs the weak Asian currency? US corporations are investing and buying Asia. This will make that region of the world stronger 2 - 3 years from now. Factor 3 There will be lesser companies in the future due to M & As. Technology allowed companies to operate more efficiently and streamlined operations (Video Conferencing, etc). Less companies with more equities in the market means the old addage on P/Es will change. Stocks will run at much higher P/Es. The Semi groups keeps on going up inspite of repeated warnings because people believe this is short term. People believe technology is driving this new economic paradigm. If I'm a holder of tech stocks ( I do own AMAT, KLIC and CPQ now), why should I sell when in 15 months everyone is saying AMAT will hit 100. That's more than 100%, it will take you more than 10 years to get that return from your bank CDs. THIS IS THE BEST TIME TO ACCCUMULATE TECH STOCKS. Smart investors know that. The tech sector is due for a sector rotation. This reminds me when Tito said, "Analysts are crying sell or stay away from the sector but the stocks are moving up" Guess who's buying. Lastly, the beauty of this all is we have Allan G. When he sees the irrationality, he'll do something and the market listens. Just my opinions. Good luck. Long term bull, Roly

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (18396)	4/2/1998 12:20:00 AM
From: Paul V.	Respond to of 70976

Jacob, >Is it just a beta phenomenon, the expected extreme volatility of a cyclical industry with no visibility? Does someone know something I don't? Onward, through the fog, at full throttle.< I believe that the Market had no place to go except to the sector at the low. Money is still pouring into the Market. In this case it was the Semi's. Note, that even the precious metal sector moved up above the 30% area. Since AMAT is the leader of the pack it will rise to the top. IMO, AMAT will move up to around $41-44, then, reverse down $3-4 and start Tito's upward stairstep scenario. But remember, $34 is where the DW bull resistance line is at. It will take $33 to break it. IMO, my scenario- AMAT will move up to $53. Then, the Tom O'Neil's, IBD approach of the "Cup and Handle" will go into effect when it reaches $54 with the momentum taking over to run AMAT to heights we will not believe. I am a "true believer" in AMAT. I am glad I am 100+% invested. With the Paula Jones case being thrown out, the FED holding rates what is left to hold this market back for least a month. I feel for the shorts on this site who are dedicated to AMAT but just trying to time the move. Just my $.02. Paul V.