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To: Tom who wrote (1509)4/2/1998 12:51:00 PM
From: William Shen  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 2951
 
Tom: Thanks for your message. I agree to a certain extent on your message. However, I would like to point out the trade-off between cash flow and earning growth depends on the industry you look at. I am not sure if you are familiar with the growth share matrix from the Boston Consulting group. What this matrix (by the way, this has become the golden rule for corporate strategy development in corporate America) says is that cash cows (divisions and companies) which generate a lot of cash from operations are generally in low growth industries either by the very definition of the industry or because the product has already entered into maturity. No further investment is required, so just milk the business as hard as you can. You should certainly not expect a high earnings multiple for this type of business. On the other hand, there are stars which are in high growth markets which require a lot of investment to fuel the growth, beat the competition and hopefully emerge as the eventual industry leader. The idea is to use cash cows to fuel the growth of the stars.

Unfortunately, not all companies have a portfolio of businesses that can be clearly divided into stars and cash cows. But the idea is quite clear, if you are looking for high growth, don't expect to see a large cash reserve on the balance sheet since most of it will be invested to build capacity or R&D in order to create capability and market share. To reconcile with your point, when you screen for investment opportunities, do look at the cash flow, but first ask the question, what industry am I looking at. If we are looking at some low growth industry like the tobacoo industry, I will be very concerned if the company says that it is investing a lot of money into operations because it should be a cash cow. And I certainly will not be expecting the stock price to double or triple in the next year. On the other hand, if I am looking at high tech firms, I will be very concerned if they have a lot of cash on hand, because all of it should be invested to maintain growth. The risk involved is obviously much higher.

So if you have a high risk profile, go for the stars and growth prospects. If you have a low risk profile, go for the cash cows and expect good dividends. Alternatively, you can try to build a balanced portfolio with both stars and cash cows.

Sorry about the long post, but given my years of experience as a strategy consultant, I want to make my points absolutely clear so none of my previous assertions are misunderstood.

William