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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (5896)	4/2/1998 2:34:00 AM
From: Dale Baker	Respond to of 18691

A Gruntal analyst on Bloomberg TV just explained the roaring bull market as a supply and demand issue. As long as more money flows in, it chases a given amount of shares and they must inevitably go up. He didn't expound on what happens if a lot of that money tries to get out of the market at the same time. The term "valuation" wasn't mentioned. Go ahead, close your eyes and buy. Everybody's doin' it....

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (5896)	4/2/1998 8:53:00 AM
From: Joey Two-Cents	Respond to of 18691

Every day for the past two months I've been posting stories on Asia. The Nikkei was down 500 pts last night as other markets are reaching all time highs. Earnings grew 1% last Q, PE's are 27x's BV 5x's. Japan is in crisis. Prior to yesterday Banks were able to pay depositors 1/2% interest but with the big bang $ 2 trillion is allowed to be shifted to where the returns are highest. Either the Japanese banks will have to be competitive and raise rates to 6% or lose the use of these funds. If they raise rates they will be squezzed out of existence if they keep rates at 1/2% they will call in business loans to make up for the short fall and collapse. Either they die a fast death or a slow death but they end up dead. Japan is Korea 100 fold last year the Finance minister said Japan will not be the cause of a world depression, we'll see. I've got put LEAPS way out of the money 1/00 on CMB & BT and plan to pick up some on AOL and BBY today. Hell if I'm wrong I'm out a couple of grand but if I'm right I can retire. Also we have an added bonus of the Y2K problem. Tick, tick, tick.