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Non-Tech : RAINFOREST CAFE -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis Vail who wrote (4131)	4/2/1998 1:07:00 PM
From: robert packman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4704

Dennis: Guess this is whats pushing stock..i have no idea what this is but....hot off the wires.........The Mind Factory Announces Joint Venture Negotiations ORLANDO, Fla.--Pending anticipated favorable negotiations, The Mind Factory(tm) will join in an independent joint venture for the production and exploitation of the television project, Monsters Be Gone(tm). Negotiations between parties began in October 97. Jeff Segal of Matrix Entertainment Group will join Leonard Grossman and Lisabeth Aubrey as producers to develop, market, and license the project. Segal was the "founder and president of MCA/Universal Family Entertainment and Universal Cartoon Studios. Prior to Universal, (Segal) was at Hanna-Barbera Productions as Vice President of Creative Affairs. In September 1997, Segal joined forces with the Rainforest Cafe as a consultant to create Rainforest Cafe Entertainment Group (RCEG)." This independent joint venture represents a first between the involved parties. The terms of venture are in negotiation, yet are inclusive of licensing for the full line of products. The Mind Factory(tm) announced that they will begin production of a one hour children's television pilot/video, Monsters Be Gone(tm), targeting a 12 and under age group. The production will shoot entirely in Orlando. Monsters Be Gone(tm) centers around common fears children share and how to overcome them. These fears of the imagination include monsters under the bed, ghosts behind doors, and fear of darkness as well as visits to the dreaded dentist or the scary doctor. Monsters Be Gone(tm) stars celebrities from the 50's and 60's, reintroducing classic television to younger generations. Butch Patrick, who played Eddie Munster of the Munster series, will star in the premier episode. The Mind Factory(tm) is an entertainment based company that caters to children's programming in the forms of episodic television series, made for TV movies, and direct-to-video films. In addition to production the company develops full merchandising lines for children's products. CONTACT: The Mind Factory(tm), Orlando Kristi Vannatter, Press Secretary, 407/248-0790 "Copyright(c) 1998, Business Wire" "Provided by Dow Jones & Company, Inc."

To: Dennis Vail who wrote (4131)	4/2/1998 8:19:00 PM
From: Dylan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4704

Regarding SSS declines: According to the receipt method, SCP is down 17.5% from Q3 1997 (its opening quarter) to Q1 1998, or 9.2% per quarter. Let's assume, though, that it is decaying exponentially and not linearly to some value that will be reached at the end of 2 years, the time period which RAIN believes to be the end of SSS decline. A fit of these two data points to a three parameter exponential decay gives an intercept, or after tax profit, of 202,340 based on Q3 97 being 383,700 and Q1 98 being 316,900. This is the worst case scenario in my opinion as an exponential decay is unlikely. Now, let's assume the decrease actually happens like this: Q3 97 First open (383,700) Q4 97 down 11% 341,493 Q1 98 down 7.3% (316,900) Q2 98 down 5.8% 298,519 Q3 98 down 4.5% 285,086 SSS down 25% Q4 98 down 3.4% 275,393 SSS down 19.6% Q1 99 down 2.6% 268,233 SSS down 15% Q2 99 down 1.4% 264,478 SSS down 11.5% Q3 99 flat 264,478 SSS down 8.3% Q4 99 flat 264,478 SSS down 4% Q1 00 flat 264,478 SSS down 1.4% Q2 00 flat 264,478 SSS flat These are very crude approximations, but I believe they shed light on how misleading SSS figures really are! Now, lets assume that we open 1 of each of this type of location every quarter and they all behave identically: Quarter 1: 1 unit 383,700 Quarter 2: 2 units 725,193 (383,700+341,493) Quarter 3: 3 units 1,042,093 Quarter 4: 4 units 1,340,612 Quarter 5: 5 units 1,625,698 SSS for 1 unit down 25% Quarter 6: 6 units 1,901,091 SSS for 2 units down 23% Quarter 7: 7 units 2,169,324 SSS for 3 units down 20.5% etc. So as you can see even though sales are actually leveling off, it takes an additional year for SSS to show this. Also, this model assumes all location open regularly. However, when a big "cluster" of locations opens in one quarter, it will depress the SSS significantly a year later. So it seems to me that when we have so few locations open, SSS is not a meaningful statistic. -Dylan

To: Dennis Vail who wrote (4131)	4/3/1998 8:50:00 PM
From: dougjn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4704

A interesting, if somewhat impassioned response. I too have some distrust of Berman, and am anxious for a new Pres to come on board. I think this co. can do fairly well on quasi autopilot, but that's never a safe thing, Clue me in on something though. I took a look at your posts, and they are all on Rain. Why on earth? Do you have different sign ons for different purposes? 90 straight posts or so on one and only one stock, since Feb 1???? Seems suspect of something to me. Assuage my suspicions. Doug