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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gerald Walls who wrote (5898)	4/2/1998 5:33:00 AM
From: Mama Bear	Respond to of 18691

>>>You have a choice. You can say, "I'm smarter than the most successful investor in the world, Warren Buffet, so I'm going to short Coke" or you can say "Maybe the most successful investor in the world, Warren Buffet, knows something and I should look for easier pickings."<<< That's kind of specious reasoning. Is Mr. B buying KO today? I honestly don't know, but would suspect that a disciple of Ben Grahm (sp?) would not be picking up shares now. We all know that Mr. B has an aversion to selling what he owns, and doesn't worry to much about the market and would just hold through any downturn. A long term holder can be very successful with the same security that a short seller makes money. The two strategies are not necessarily mutually exclusive. That being said, I don't really see KO as a compelling, or even marginal, short. Why short that kind of relative strength? Barb

To: Gerald Walls who wrote (5898)	4/2/1998 8:31:00 AM
From: Lazlo Pierce	Respond to of 18691

Gerald, I agree with you about not shorting KO. I did buy some puts that were profitable until Buffett released his annual report a few weeks ago (KO +10 since). The point of the post was to discuss valuations. And how in this market valuations do not matter. Whats the difference between KO @ 50 x next years earnings vs 60x or 70x for that matter. Under this paradigm, there is no reason KO couldn't go to 100 by the end of the month. As I said earlier, I've learned it isn't a matter of being right, "the trend is your friend" has never been more appropos. Dabe