To: AnnieK who wrote (149 ) 4/24/1998 12:19:00 PM From: The ChrisMeister Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 742
"This board is awfully quiet - why aren't you all giving each other high-fives on your brilliant investment? Or isn't anyone left?" I don't check this board very often because of the paucity of solid information and enlightening discussion here. There are several much better forums on SI, and I barely have time for them. So many of these forums just seem to me to be like support groups for longs. In fact, I'm tempted to use the number of high-fives flying here as a contrary indicator, since I'm primarily a technical investor... I've made $$'s on this stock both long and short over the last year or more, though since Dec. I've been maintaining a core long position, selling extra shares when we're overdone on the upside and buying 'em back lower (like today). Trading down the basis (as it's called) is very feasible with a volatile stock like this. Remember, volatility implies lack of liquidity, both in shares and in cash, so one can be rewarded by supplying what the market needs at the moment. I use technical tools (a 14-day relative strenght indicator mostly) to choose entry/exit points. For the time being we're in a pronounced up-trend, in spite of the recent weakness (which has been hitting a lot of the non-bigcap smaller issues as of late). No guarantees, of course, to any other longs out there. <HR WIDTH="60%" SIZE=2 NOSHADE>"Has anyone been following the options? Is there always such a high premium?" Yes, I follow them some. There's an extremely low open interest in the VUQ options -- hardly several dozen on near-the-money front months. This tells me no one really cares to deal in them. As a result, you have to assume you're basically buying at retail prices. The premium is very high because the volatility of this stock is so high -- anyone who's followed this stock knows it's not uncommon to have multiple-point moves in any direction. It's just a hunch, but I think this is because this is one of those favorite stocks for short-term momentum players, scalpers, day-traders, and the like. If you want to go the options route, I'd suggest waiting for a very quite period when everyone's getting impatient and is complaining about how boring it's been and how over-looked/out-of-favor the stock is. The volatility premium should then have come down a bit. But you have to put yourself in the position of the person on the other side of the trade: Do you have the moxie to be a seller of (possibly naked) options on this thing? Remember, the options market-makers in an issue like this are not in it to help you make money. ChrisMeister