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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (9569)	4/2/1998 9:39:00 AM
From: 2brasil	Respond to of 152472

ot Siemens bets big on mobile phones also G* I* mentioned biz.yahoo.com bruce p,s thanks for info Greg.P. IF ONLY PATIENCE WAS MY VIRTUE!

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (9569)	4/2/1998 10:41:00 AM
From: Harvey Rosenkrantz	Respond to of 152472

To aid you in your mathematical circumgyrations regarding handset projections, Newaves magazine states that in February Sprint signed up its 1 millionth subscriber, and that at the end of 1997 Primeco had 387000 subscribers. The problem in doing future extrapolation is that as these two major customers improve their systems and roaming agreements, the incremental addition of more subscribers accelerates. In addition, BEL and ATI are now promoting their digital services more aggressively. As an aside, my sister-in-law was just here from Miami, using her Primeco phone, roaming in analog mode on ATI. The reception was fine and there were NO GLITCHES, son of a gun, the system works!! To add icing on the cake, she changed planes in Houston and called us on her QCP 820 from the airport. Looks to me that this works very much like a national footprint even though it is a bit of a patchwork. The real good news is that if she can work the system, the rest of us technologically challenged types have a good chance of figuring out how to push the right buttons to work the phone.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (9569)	4/2/1998 11:17:00 AM
From: Gregg Powers	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Maurice: Thanks for the kind words. To be honest, I am far more impatient with the silly and superficial analysis emanating from certain highly compensated Wall Street analysts then I am with QC's stock price. As you well know, stock prices fluctuate based on fear and greed, often detaching from corporate intrinsic value. In my experience, time and patience always resolve such inefficiencies.. As for your cdmaOne handset question, let me answer your question indirectly, by explaining how I look at the world (literally). I maintain a continent-by-continent map of global CDMA networks, categorized by deployment status (i.e. commercial, pre-commercial, trial etc.), network type (digital overlay, PCS or WLL), population density and competitive environment (duopoly or multiple provider). Around this template I make a series of penetration assumptions, ranging from very conservative to aggressive, calibrated (hopefully) to reflect carriers' strategic imperatives (i.e. PCS networks, being entirely digital, ramp faster than digital overlays were analog customers are being migrated etc.). From this model derives my estimate of worldwide CDMA subscriber growth for this year and next. Now, here is the key point. Until recently, there were large population centers (Europe, for example) that appeared foreclosed to QC. With the advent of W-CDMA, my worldwide template has to be expanded materially. This is very profound, yet many analysts seem confused about the implications. If Ericsson had overtly capitulated and signed an IS-95 license with QC, the investment community would have been ecstatic. Such an action would have unimpeachably validated CDMA as the superior technology and driven a stake through the heart of ERICY's TDMA-based GSM business. As a clever marketer, but recognizing the inevitable, Ericsson is attempting to finesse the issue by developing a "proprietary" flavor of CDMA, holding this out as the "proper" successor to TDMA-based GSM, and suggesting that, for some reason, IS-95 is structurally inferior. This, as you succinctly observed, is total horse poo-poo because Ericsson's flavor of CDMA is not materially different from IS-95 (i.e the technological underpinnings are not bandwidth dependent). As maintained by Qualcomm, ETSI and DoCoMo, and further confirmed by the Lucent/Philips license, if you want to do mobile CDMA you need QC's IPR. So, to my mind, Ericsson has now publicly committed to QC's CDMA and it is just a matter of time until a myriad of new license agreements get signed. QC's economic opportunity thus has been expanded almost as if ERICY had signed an IS-95 license. This conclusion is important, profound and thoroughly misunderstood or discounted by Wall Street. It should be amusing and pleasurable to watch the gap between external perception and internal reality close. Best Regards, Gregg

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (9569)	4/2/1998 4:02:00 PM
From: DaveMG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Maurice , Gregg,,&ALL I am trying to come up with a conservative estimate of how much royalty QCOM might be expected to receive per subscriber, something I imagine you have given some thought to. As far as I can tell Royalty,License and Dev. fees have totaled approx 325 mil from Yrs 94-97. According to the 1997 annual statement, there were some 8mil subscribers worldwide at the end of the year. Unfortunately it's not possible to distinguish between licensing royalty and development fees, so one is left only with aggregates, however as an aggregate this translates into about 40$ per user. This of course conflates infrastructure and handset royalties,etc., but I don't have a better method at hand.40$ seems a might steep, but if one considers the value created for all those invloved,i.e equipment vendors , systems operators and subscribers, perhaps not.At any rate 40$ doesn't sound very conservative to me. Any thoughts?............Thanks in advance...Dave