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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (15441)	4/2/1998 7:36:00 AM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, I did not get a Barron's last week. Do you happen to know what the specialist/public short selling ratio was? I assume it did not change much since the direction/rate of change is reflected in the Vickers figures published by Marketguage. Last time I looked it was, according to Fosback, still in a positive range (suggesting a market rise). The Marketgauge figures on insiders turned bearish recently but the specialist activity seems neutral.

To: William H Huebl who wrote (15441)	4/2/1998 7:41:00 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Tommaso, Bill, I know you guys are not a lot into fundamentals but I would like to bring up some aspects that may influence the markets. 1. Japan and SE Asia seem to walk apart as some SE Asia countries are on the right track and Japan plays Samurray. The net result will be pressure on US treasuries - e.g Interest rates with upward bias. 2. The solid US economy fills the treasury coffers which in turn prompts the US to retire debt and counter the sales of Japan 3. Due to the weakness of the yen and other currencies raising now interest rates by the FED is undermining the US economy as exports which already weak will weaken further, therefore my guess no interest increase until SE Asia stabilizes. 4. As long term rates are steady around 5.7% to 6% the bond market is doing the work for the FED including the SE Asia crisis which tampers exports from the US. 5. the real problem is rampant stock prices which the bozoss in congress like as they think it will solve the social security problem and increase their chances to be re-elected. 6. AG is known as one, who knows to read political tea leaves, so until the inflation will not show up no change in policy, or he is toast. AG already achieved is goal of going to the History Hall of Fame of FED Chairmans 7. Clinton got some political clout and the last he wants now is a market BK which will undermine a chance of more democrats entering in congress So who will mind the store??? well SE Asia or other external event. It all will end not in tears but worst. By day it seems that 1929 will repeat itself but in a different form. My position short some puts - e.g. long with a fast trigger. trying to exit or hedge with shorts. Anticipating a sharp reversal by next week or so BWDIK HAim